Latest causes of the crash 321 vbulletin. An explosion on board is the most likely cause of the A321 crash, Stratfor experts say
According to experts, the reasons for the destruction passenger plane The Airbus A321 of Kogalymavia airlines in the air could have been damaged by a shock wave from the explosion of a small bomb, torn off engine parts or fatigue cracks that appeared in the supporting structures, the Kommersant newspaper writes on Monday, November 2.
Experts call one of the versions of the plane crash a bomb explosion in the luggage compartment, which could lead to explosive depressurization of the plane due to a sharp pressure drop. A similar situation occurred with a Pan American Boeing 747 that crashed in December 1988. Then experts for a long time could not understand what caused the crash of the airliner, but after all the found wreckage of the plane was collected, in one of the sheets of the fuselage skin they saw a hole with curved edges the size of a watermelon. Experts determined that a plasticite-based bomb was placed in a small transistor and it exploded in the suitcase of one of the passengers in the luggage compartment. This passenger, who did not board the plane himself, was then a terrorist from Libya.
The source told the publication that there is also a version that the integrity of the airliner could have been damaged by a fatigue crack, which probably appeared in the fuselage frame. In 2001, an Airbus A321, which did not yet belong to Kogalymavia, hit the runway with its tail when landing at Cairo airport. This incident, which is called a “fellow touch” in aviation, led to a violation of the structural geometry and flight characteristics of the aircraft. A specialist interviewed by the publication believes that after an unsuccessful landing, the plane was checked using non-destructive testing and put into operation only after all defects were corrected.
“The accident-free flight statistics for aircraft like Airbus 321 are about 11-12 million hours. If an accident does occur, it means that something was overlooked during maintenance or repair,” the expert explained to Kommersant.
Another cause of depressurization could be a faulty engine. In case of non-localized destruction of the turbine, the blades that come off it, as experts say, fly out at great speed and, moving in one plane, cut the wing and fuselage of the airliner like a saw blade.
The newspaper's interlocutors note that the exact cause of the A321 crash will not be easy to establish. Readings from the black boxes will show how all the aircraft's systems functioned, as well as what measures the crew took. Probably, the cause of the plane crash will be suggested to experts by the last conversations of the crew members, if they managed to understand and discuss the cause of the plane crash. However, for a full investigation it is necessary to collect all the wreckage of the plane and reconstruct from it the outline of the crashed airliner.
It was established that the A321, when falling from a height, turned over and “literally fell on its back,” Interfax reported on Monday, citing an informed source in Cairo. The agency's interlocutor also said that the crew did not inform ground services about problems on board, did not send distress signals and did not request emergency landing. At the same time, the source emphasized that it is premature to build any versions about the causes of the plane crash.
On the morning of October 31, Russian passenger Airbus A321 of Kogalymavia airlines crashed over Sinai Peninsula during a flight from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg. There were 224 people on board the plane, all of them died. The causes of the disaster are being established. The A321 black boxes were discovered on Saturday at the crash site, and specialists in Egypt deciphered them on Sunday. The IAC stated that the airliner is in the air.
Nowadays, close attention is paid to the results of processing black boxes. It is reported that both were found, but one, where the pilots' communications are located, is damaged; special care is required in the process of extracting data. Previously, unnamed sources reported that the pilots’ conversations did not indicate any emergency situation, say, technical malfunctions; however, some strange noises were mentioned, but there is no specific information on this yet.
Apparently, the search at the crash site is nearing completion. The wreckage of the plane and the remains of the bodies of the victims are scattered over a large area. More than 30 square kilometers have already been thoroughly examined, as stated, if necessary, the fall area will be checked down to the centimeter. By the end of today, the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Vladimir Puchkov, set the task of finishing the work as planned.
Alexander Agafonov, Director of the Department of Fire, Rescue and Special Forces of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation: “The main efforts today were focused on hard-to-reach areas, including the use of an unmanned aerial vehicle. In the morning after the departure of the IAC, an additional decision was made to further examine the large burnt wreckage of the aircraft.”
The British authorities, without waiting for the end of the investigation, made their hasty conclusions and took action. The version of an explosive device has been put forward among others from the very beginning of the investigation. The Egyptian and Russian authorities asked to wait until the end of the investigation. So far there has been no reliable evidence of sabotage.
The Egyptian authorities categorically claim that it is impossible to carry a bomb on board, they say, Sharm el-Sheikh airport is famous for its reliability. Egyptians were displeased with reports from the United States and Great Britain about inside the Islamic State (an organization banned in the Russian Federation), which indicate an explosive device.
Suspicion, as the media write, falls primarily on service personnel who could have been bribed or recruited. The British are already taking concrete measures in this regard. Immediately after the disaster, they for their airlines from Egypt to the UK. As a result of an urgent discussion, it was decided to stop flights from the UK to the Egyptian resort, and citizens of the country were advised not to travel there.
Philip Hammond, British Foreign Secretary: “At a meeting of the emergency committee chaired by the Prime Minister, we carefully studied the information about the crash of the Russian airliner in the Sinai and came to the conclusion that the crash was most likely caused by an explosive device on board, so we are canceling all flights of national carriers in Sharm el-Sheikh".
Every year 900 thousand Britons holiday in Egypt. At least 2,000 people from the United Kingdom are currently stuck in resorts, and it is not yet known how they are supposed to get home. How it conveys NTV columnist Vladimir Kondratyev, British specialists are checking Egyptian security measures on site. It is reported that the former director of the airport in Sharm el-Sheikh has been removed from his post. True, he stayed to help the new leader.
For Egypt, which employs so many people in its tourism industry, it is important to maintain its image. IN Russian media it is reported that so far investigators have not found any traces of a mine-explosive nature, so the version of the explosion remains only one of the versions.
To date, 58 victims of the crash have already been identified, including all crew members. . Genetic examinations will take a lot of time, perhaps the process will drag on for months.
Today in St. Petersburg the funeral of the victims, who have been 100% identified, begins. Authorities are handing over the identified bodies to loved ones. Also from today, cash payments to the families of the victims begin.
CAIRO, November 7. /Corr. TASS Dina Drunk/. In the last seconds of the flight recorder recording of the Russian A321 that crashed in Egypt, an extraneous sound is heard. This was announced on Saturday by the head of the international commission to investigate the causes of the crash of the airliner, Ayman al-Mukaddam.
According to him, both “black boxes” were found on the first day of the crash, and the scattering of debris is more than 12 km, but not all of them could be found. "All discovered parts of the airliner will be delivered to Cairo within safe place for further examination," he said.
“The initial decoding of the parametric “black box” indicates that the takeoff was made at 03:50:06 UTC (06:50:06 Moscow time). The recording of the recorders stopped at 04:13:20 (07:13:20 Moscow time), - said "Thus, the duration from the moment of takeoff until the recording stopped was 23 minutes 14 seconds. The last recording records the altitude at 30,888 feet (about 9,414 meters), while the aircraft was in the climb stage."
According to him, the last recorded speed was 281 knots (about 521 km/h). “The autopilot was turned on until the end of the parametric recorder recording,” al-Muqaddam added.
As for the voice recorder, as the head of the investigation indicated, “it was safely unloaded and the first decoding has already been done.” “However, the team studying it is still in the deciphering stage, which will take some time,” he said.
“It has now been established that noise is heard in the last seconds of the recording,” Alt-Mukaddam noted. “The nature of this sound will be determined in a special laboratory, where a spectral analysis will be carried out.”
The day before, a source in the Russian representation at the commission said that the Russian side “has no confirmation of the fact of an explosion on board the plane.”
All versions are being studied
As the head of the commission emphasized, the debris found at the crash site of the Russian A321 in Sinai does not allow us to determine the nature of the impact and the exact causes of the disaster.
“The plane broke up in the air, and so far it is not possible to say exactly the reasons for this,” he said. “The wreckage of the airliner did not give us a clear picture of what happened.”
All versions of the Russian A321 crash in Egypt are currently being studied, he said. “We have not yet come to a final conclusion,” al-Muqaddam emphasized.
Earlier, the director of the FSB of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bortnikov, said that he considers it necessary to suspend Russian aviation flights to Egypt until the true causes of the tragedy with the A321 are established. “Until we decide on the true reasons for what happened, I consider it advisable to suspend Russian aviation flights to Egypt. This applies primarily to the tourist channel,” Bortnikov said. Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed with the recommendation of the National Anti-Terrorism Committee. On November 6 at 20.00, air traffic with Egypt was suspended.
Egypt asks to share information
Cairo called on all parties to share information on the crash of the Russian A321 in the skies over the Sinai Peninsula.
“There have been reports in the media, including citing official intelligence, that support a certain scenario,” he said. “In this regard, the commission states that it has not received any information or evidence in this regard. We call on the sources of these reports provide comprehensive data that will help us complete our mission."
“I said that we are ready to accept any information regarding the disaster from any party. We need any information... And if any party wants to provide us with information, we have no objections,” al-Muqaddam said.
“The commission is now considering all possible scenarios for the incident, but so far we have not come to any conclusion,” al-Muqaddam said.
Common information about the disaster Russian plane, which we heard about, were not made available to the Egyptian intelligence services in detail. We expected that all technical information on this issue would be provided to us. Foreign intelligence services did not cooperate with Egypt in investigating the cause of the crash of the Russian airliner
Egyptian Foreign Minister
Sameh Shukri
Composition of the commission
According to al-Muqaddam, the investigation commission included 47 investigators. “Among them are 29 from Egypt, seven from the Russian Federation, six from France, two from Germany and three from Ireland (the country of registration of the aircraft),” he emphasized. “In addition, they include 10 technical advisers from Airbus and one from IASA ( International Aviation Safety Association). A total of 58 experts."
As al-Muqaddam noted, investigators visited the crash site five times, “the last time last Wednesday.” "It's bad now weather that do not allow access to the disaster area,” he said. “As soon as it allows, they will go there again.”
The Ministry of Emergency Situations still remains in Sinai
A rescue team from the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations remains in the area of the A321 plane crash on the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt.
“Russian rescuers are assisting specialists of the Interstate Aviation Committee, which is engaged in identifying the causes of the disaster,” Alexander Agafonov, head of the EMERCOM operational group in Sinai, head of the Department of Fire and Rescue Forces and Military Units, told TASS.
Disaster in Egypt
Airplane A321 Russian airline Kogalymavia, operating flight 9268 Sharm el-Sheikh - St. Petersburg, crashed on October 31, about half an hour after departure, 100 km south of administrative center North Sinai province El Arish city near settlement El-Hasna. There were a total of 217 passengers and seven crew members on the plane; no one survived.
Continuation
The management of Kogalymavia on Monday came out with its version of the cause of the A321 crash in Egypt: the equipment was in good working order, the crew was professional, the incident that occurred in 2001 did not affect the plane, the airliner collapsed from external influences. This version, however, was denied by the Egyptian commission of inquiry. Experts are now discussing the two versions as approximately equally probable.
The general director of the Kogalymavia airline, Alexander Snagovsky, said on Monday that he believes the reason for the Russian Airbus-321 on the Sinai Peninsula is external influence. According to him, an aircraft such as the A321 could not have collapsed in the air due to the failure of any technical systems. The only cause of destruction in the air, according to him, can be mechanical impact, RIA Novosti reports.
“No fatigue crack can develop to a critical size.”
At the same time, Snagovsky emphasized that Kogalymavia excludes the human factor and the technical factor as versions of the plane crash.
The day before, we recall, the flight crew of Kogalymavia Airlines published a letter in which they stated that the crashed plane was controlled by experienced pilots, whose actions caused the disaster.
However, this version does not fit with the information received from the flight recorders. A Reuters source at the Egyptian investigation commission said that, according to the first data analyzed, the plane was not exposed to external influences and did not send a distress signal before hitting the ground.
Airline version
The airline's deputy general director for technical and production issues, Andrei Averyanov, expanded the airline's version in more detail: when the Kogalymavia A321 aircraft crashed over the Sinai Peninsula, the aircraft most likely received significant structural damage, and the crew completely lost control of the controls. In addition, in less than a minute, the A321 aircraft slowed down by more than 300 km per hour and decreased altitude by 1.5 km. At the same time, there was not a single attempt to get in touch and report an emergency situation on board.
“During the transition to the crash, the A321 aircraft most likely suffered significant structural damage that prevented it from continuing to fly. And, apparently, in connection with this, at the same moment the catastrophic situation began to develop, the crew completely lost their ability to work, this is what can explain the fact that there was not a single attempt to get in touch and report an emergency situation on board,” he explained.
A survey of the crews who worked on the A321 that crashed in Egypt confirmed that the airliner was in excellent technical condition. As the air carrier noted, over the last five flights there was not a single comment in the logbook from the A321 crew regarding problems with the aircraft.
The airline also said that on October 26, the aircraft's engines underwent a baroscopic test and no problems were identified.Kogalymavia claims that repairs carried out in 2001 after the plane’s tail touched the runway during landing (then the plane belonged to a Lebanese carrier) could not have been the cause of the disaster, since the deficiencies would have been discovered since then.
“Regarding fatigue cracks, I should note that work to assess fatigue cracks is carried out at aircraft at intervals of once every five years. We carried out such work with all care on the plane, it was just 2014 in March,” said flight director of Kogalymavia airline Alexander Smirnov.
“Airplane design defines airworthiness standards that ensure that no fatigue cracks can develop to a critical size during the inspection interval,” he added.
A terrorist attack is not ruled out
“Let’s wait for the official results of the investigation, and the commission will tell us about its results, I wouldn’t like to engage in speculation now, this is not in my competence,” suggested Smirnov.
Answering the question whether there could have been a terrorist attack, Smirnov said: “Anything could have happened.”
The Kremlin has not ruled out the possibility of a terrorist attack, although presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that it was necessary to first wait for the results of the investigation.
Let us remind you that on Saturday, the France-Presse agency, without citing sources, published information that the Sinai ISIS cell took responsibility for the death of the plane with people. There was no confirmation of this information, and the Russian Minister of Transport stated that there was no evidence that the plane was shot down. In addition, the Investigative Committee of Russia opened a case under Art. 263 (violation of flight rules and preparation for them) and under Part 3 of Art. 238 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (provision of services that do not meet safety requirements).
However, experts do not rule out something else - an explosion on board.
Assumptions
Currently, experts are discussing two versions - the destruction of the plane in the air as a result of a terrorist attack and due to technical problems of the plane.
Former head of the French Bureau of Investigation and Security Analysis civil aviation Jean-Paul Troadec stated that, according to the information known on this moment, he can conclude: the plane did not fall in a dive.
“Obviously, the plane did not fall at its peak. There are no small fragments, which suggests that it did not fall in a dive. That’s all that can be said at this stage,” Troadek told Belgian publication La Derniere heure.
“The study of the wreckage and data from the flight recorders will quickly determine which hypothesis is more likely: a crime or an accident,” he said.
Allen Bouilliard, who was involved in investigations in France aviation accidents, told the New York Times that he doesn't really know what technical problems could lead to destruction in flight of such modern aircraft, like Airbus A321-200. “A mid-air disruption due to a technical failure seems extremely unlikely to me,” he added.
At the same time, the former head of the US National Transportation Safety Board, Mark Rosenker, said that he is more inclined to believe that the cause of the disaster was technology rather than a terrorist attack, citing in favor of his version the fact that the plane was damaged in 2001 year - when landing at high speed in Cairo, the tail touched the runway. Then the board was operated by Middle East Airlines. However, Rosenker did not deny the possibility of a terrorist attack.
President of the Civil Aviation Partner Foundation, Honored Pilot of the USSR Oleg Smirnov, in an interview with the VZGLYAD newspaper, said that he does not rule out both the version of a terrorist attack and the technical one. According to him, it is necessary to check whether the skin was opened during the repair of the aircraft after the accident in 2001: if the repair was limited to replacing the tail, specialists might not have seen the microcracks that had formed on the fuselage. Such microcracks sooner or later lead to tragedy. In addition, Smirnov did not rule out depressurization: for example, an engine explosion occurred, after which the turbine could break through the skin of the aircraft, and the aircraft was torn apart by the air flow.
Initiatives
Meanwhile, Russia's main legislative body continues to discuss measures that could make the country's aviation industry safer. On Saturday, we recall, deputy Alexey Pushkov proposed banning the operation of aircraft over 15 years old, and on Sunday he added that two or three carriers should be left on the market.
Anatoly Vyborny, a member of the State Duma Security Committee, was not so categorical. In an interview with the newspaper VZGLYAD, he expressed the opinion that such restrictions need to be discussed with aviation professionals. He also drew attention to the need to combat the supply of counterfeit spare parts for aircraft.
A member of the State Duma Committee on Transport, Oleg Nilov, took the initiative to introduce a state monopoly on passenger air transportation: “I believe that we need to consider the issue - and I have already made such a proposal - about returning the state monopoly. In any case, those companies that carry out passenger air transportation must be under 100% state control,” Nilov said, noting that Russia has been one of the first in the number of aviation accidents in recent years. “If you count the number of flights and the population, I’m afraid that this will be the first place,” the parliamentarian added.
Nilov recalled that there had already been experience of a state monopoly on air transportation, including in Soviet time. “As an option for a compromise, I propose: 51% of the shares are in the hands of the state, 49% in the hands of private investors and entrepreneurs,” the deputy clarified.
“It will be difficult to do this through some kind of law, amendments to the law. It would be more correct to contact the government with such an initiative, and if it considers this possible, it will either prepare its own regulations, decisions and, if necessary, legislative acts,” he explained to TASS.
A member of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, Evgeny Fedorov, expressed the opinion that small airlines, whose fleet consists of three to ten aircraft, cannot ensure full flight safety. “There are companies - three to five to ten aircraft. It is clear that they will not be able to pull out security in full. You need to have several consolidated airlines, like in banking. The strategic line itself is wrong,” he said.
"Behind Last year accidents in the aviation industry increased by 35%,” the deputy concluded.
The media called the cause of the A321 crash an “explosion in the plane of the engine.”
A321 crash site
Photo: epa/vostock-photo
An Airbus A321 crashed over the Sinai Peninsula due to an explosion in the area of the aircraft engine: this is evidenced by data obtained during the investigation into the causes of the disaster. As RBC reports with reference to the publication Al-Masry Al-Youm, this was stated by a source in the investigative commission.
According to the publication’s interlocutor, experts completed decoding the “black boxes”, and the first results of the investigation were presented at a meeting of the international investigative commission on the evening of November 3.
An Airbus A321 source named an “explosion in the plane of the engine” as the main cause of the plane crash. At the same time, he emphasized that the cause of the explosion would need to be established through laboratory tests of the materials remaining on the bodies of the victims and at the crash site.
“The investigation still has suspicions about a possible terrorist attack. Samples taken from the bodies and wreckage of the plane will help determine whether the explosion was the result of a terrorist attack or a technical malfunction of the engine,” the source told Al-Masry Al-Youm.
The publication's source also added that the flight recorders recorded a rapid decrease in altitude. “The power of the explosion was great, both engines failed at once, the explosion caused fire and destruction of the plane in the air,” a source told Al-Masry Al-Youm.
The day before, the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi rejected the version of the A321 crash related to the terrorist attack. In an interview with The Telegraph, the Egyptian leader called reports that a bomb on the plane or a shell caused the crash to be “baseless speculation.” Further comments regarding the incident, in his opinion, are “premature and not based on any proper facts.”
An earlier version of a terrorist attack as a possible cause of the crash of the Kogalymavia airliner was also rejected by an official representative of the Egyptian government Hussam al-Kuwaish. He emphasized that all the evidence indicates that a technical malfunction, and not an external influence, led to the plane crash in the Sinai Peninsula.
At the same time, the airline that owned the A321 said that the only explicable cause of the crash could be an external influence. “There is no failure that could cause the aircraft to break up in mid-air. In this case [if the systems failed], the plane would have collapsed [only] from hitting the ground,” Kogalymavia said.
As Yugopolis reported, in their opinion, the most likely cause of the plane crash over the Sinai Peninsula was the carrying of an explosive device on board the Airbus A321. At the same time, Stratfor noted that the possibility of aircraft failure cannot be completely ruled out.
An Airbus A321 of Kogalymavia Airlines, flying from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg, crashed 100 km from the Egyptian city of El Arish on the morning of October 31. All 224 people on board were killed. Among the dead were two flight attendants - natives of Kuban. The Islamic State, banned in Russia, claimed responsibility for the plane crash on the same day, but subsequently the Russian authorities and Egyptian intelligence services denied information about the involvement of terrorists in the A321 crash. On November 4, IS militants reiterated their involvement in the downing of the plane.
