Calculation of indicators of relative migration values. Balance of migration and other indicators

The scale, intensity and other parameters of population migration are characterized using a system of indicators. These are absolute and relative numerical characteristics of the migration process at different stages of its course, characterizing the general level of mobility of the population of the territories, the scale, structure, directions and effectiveness of migration flows for a given period. These are mainly calculated indicators (migration rates) based on a comparison of absolute indicators (arrivals, departures, growth, net migration, migration turnover, etc.) with the average size of the studied population for a certain period. For purposes of comparability with other rates, migration rates are calculated, as a rule, per 1,000 people of the respective territory or socio-demographic group of the population.

General indicators can be absolute, relative and structural - they all express the migration activity of the population of a particular area as a whole.

Absolute indicators make it possible to compare the scale and results of population migration, as well as its intensity, either for different regions or for the same region, but in different periods of time. The volumes (scales) of migration are characterized by the numbers of the arrived or departed population. The sum of the arrived and departed population is called the migration turnover, or gross migration. The effectiveness of migration is expressed by migration growth, calculated as the difference between the numbers of the arrived and departed population. The migration gain is also called the migration balance, or net migration.

Table 1 - Indicators of the total volume of population migration

Relative indicators include the effectiveness of population migration, which is the ratio between the numbers of arrivals and departures. This indicator is expressed as the number of departures per 100 or 1000 arrivals. Using data on the numbers of arrivals and departures, one can also calculate an indicator that allows one to compare the results obtained (the number of migrants remaining in the area of ​​settlement) with the costs incurred (the number of arrivals). This is a kind of demographic cost indicator. The smaller the number of the arrived population and the larger the positive balance of migration, the more efficient the migration process. The indicator of demographic costs largely reflects the material costs (full or only for resettlement) associated with the formation of a certain number and composition of the population in the populated areas.

The most used relative indicators are the intensity coefficients of migration processes. They make it possible to compare the migration mobility of the population of different regions. Intensity characterizes the frequency of a phenomenon in a known environment and is expressed as a proper fraction, the numerator of which is the number of cases of a special kind, and the denominator is the main population. These indicators are determined by dividing the number of arrivals (departure, migration turnover, net migration) by the average annual (quarterly, etc.) population. They are expressed as a percentage or in ppm, i.e. per 100 or 1000 population.

Table 2 - Relative indicators of migration

Structural indicators, in turn, are absolute and relative. They are calculated for different structural elements of the migration flow separately: for men and women, for people of different ages, education, nationality, social status, etc. Usually, men migrate more often than women (they have higher migration intensity indicators), young people participate in territorial movements to a greater extent than children and the elderly.

As the most general indicators of potential migration, the shares of potential migrants (persons who have made, but have not yet implemented the decision to leave a given settlement) and the corresponding stable contingents in the composition of both the entire population and its constituent socio-demographic groups can be used ( by sex, age, nationality, profession, education, marital status, place of birth, etc.). Currently, in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, a point system for assessing potential immigrants is used - a formalized system for determining the "value" of a potential immigrant for the economy and society of the country of immigration, evaluating the characteristics of the applicant (age, education, profession, work experience, level of language proficiency, etc. .) a certain number of points, which in total must amount to a "passing score", giving the right to start the immigration process.

The possibilities for a wide use of indicators of structural migration attitudes are limited both due to the local nature of the relevant information and the non-identity of the research methods used to obtain it. For this reason, the level of potential migration mobility of the population of different territories is more often assessed based on the results of the implementation of migration guidelines.

The most accurate indicator of the level of migratory mobility is the number of migrations over the entire lived period of life among persons of a certain socio-demographic group or the population as a whole. In assessing the mobility of the population, probabilistic indicators are also used, and above all, sex and age probabilities of migration. Based on the age probabilities of the first migration, the process of gradual involvement is simulated. different groups population in the process of migration. A systematic description of this process makes it possible to construct probabilistic mobility tables. They are pure and combined. The latter take into account the decrease in the population as a result of mortality. At the same time, mobility tables are built, differentiated according to the order of migration. In general, such tables are probabilistic and hypothetical; their use in forecasting is limited, since they require detailed initial data and do not take into account the changing stereotypes of the migration behavior of the population.

Indicators of actual migration are divided, as a rule, into three groups: general, characterizing the migration processes summarized for the territory; special (or structural) characterizing the migration of specific socio-demographic groups; indicators of inter-territorial exchange characterizing the links between specific territories of migration exchange. They include general absolute indicators reflecting the scale and power of migration, namely:

migration turnover as the sum of arrivals and departures, localized in a certain territory. A concept identical to migration turnover is "gross migration" or "gross migration". For each territory, external and internal migration turnover is determined;

number of incoming and outgoing population;

the balance of migration, calculated as the difference between the numbers of the arrived and departed population. Concepts identical to the balance of migration are: "migration increase", "mechanical increase", "increase in the number of migration", "net migration". The balance of migration acts as that information, without which it is impossible to construct other indicators.

Structural and inter-district absolute indicators are based on the same numbers of migration turnover, arrivals, departures, migration balance, or departing men and women, people of different ages, nationalities, etc., or for specific pairs of regions.

Indicators of interregional migration characterize the volume, results and intensity of migration exchange taking place between two regions, one of which is the region of exit, the other is the region of settlement. Primary from the entire system of inter-district indicators are the numbers of arrivals and departures for each pair of districts. The absolute values ​​of migration flows between the areas of exit and settlement express the power of the movement of the population between the areas. To assess the intensity of interregional population exchange, it is usually not the absolute size of resettlements that is used, but relative values ​​adequate to them - the proportions of migrants from different regions in the total number of arrivals (departure, migration turnover, etc.). But these indicators do not reveal the actual migration links, since the structure of the migrating population largely reflects the existing zoning of the country. Therefore, the significance of individual regions in the exchange of population depends not only on the intensity of migration ties, but also on the size of their population. The population size of exit areas determines their migration capacity or their "migration potential". The greater the migration opportunity, the larger the exit area. Thus, Siberia has more weight in the exchange of population with other economic regions than its part - Western Siberia, and this economic region has a greater migration opportunity than the regions and territories included in it. This indicator, as well as the power of migration flows, is unsuitable for characterizing the intensity of interregional migration links. To assess the intensity of inter-regional migration links, special indicators are used that do not depend on the population of the regions between which migration exchange takes place. These links cannot be revealed using indicators whose calculations are methodologically the same as the calculation of the coefficients of intensity of migration of the population of a given territory. And both of them are unsuitable. options calculation of migration links neither in relation to the population of the exit areas, nor in relation to the population of the settlement areas. In order to eliminate the influence of the population size of both exit areas (migration opportunities) and settlement areas (migration capacity) on the indicators of migration relations, it is necessary to divide the shares of each exit area in the migration of the population of this area of ​​settlement by the shares of exit areas in the total number of their population. To calculate the indicators of inter-district connections in this way, it is sufficient to have data on the structure of the migrating population of one or another region of exit (settlement) and the average annual population of all regions.

In addition to absolute indicators, indicators of actual migration include relative indicators that characterize the proportion of migrants from different areas of origin in the total number of migrants in the region of settlement.

These include the intensity of migration - a statistical characteristic of the mobility of the population, which shows its frequency in certain territorial and demographic groups and is expressed by the migration intensity coefficient (KIM), which makes it possible to compare the migration mobility of the population in different regions of the country. The intensity is a proper fraction, the numerator of which is the number of migrants (arrivals, departures or their sum), and the denominator is the average population over the period. KIM can be calculated both for the entire population of a given territory (all-territorial KIM), and for its various structural elements - gender, age of nationality, etc. KIM is calculated per 1000 inhabitants.

Table 3 - Indicators of the structure of migration flows

Rosstat measures the intensity of migration in ppm. Migration intensity coefficients make it possible to assess the level of mobility of the population of a particular territory, as well as to compare the levels of mobility of the population of regions of different rank and size, to identify the dynamics of migration movement, regardless of changes in population. However, the use of this indicator is limited by the fact that its value depends not only on the intensity of migration links of one region or another with others, but also on the migration capacity of the region of entry and the migration potential of the region of exit.

The birth rate (KN) is the ratio of the number of live births per year (N) to the average annual population () per thousand people:

The mortality rate (KM) is the ratio of the number of deaths per year (M) to the average annual population ():

The coefficient of natural increase (KS) is determined by the formula

KS = KN-KM

The marriage rate is defined as the ratio of the number of marriages per year to the average annual population.

The divorce rate is the ratio of the number of marriages dissolved in a year to the average annual population.

The coefficient of vitality (Klife) is the ratio of the number of births to the number of deaths. It characterizes the excess of birth rate over mortality: how many times more people are born than die:

When analyzing age-specific mortality rates, special attention is paid to infant mortality, that is, the mortality of children under the age of one year. The infant mortality rate, which is the number of deaths under the age of 1 year per 1000 live births in the reporting (N1) and the previous year (N0), is calculated using the formula

Cd.cm=(m0: N0+m1:N1) 1000

where m1 - those who died under the age of 1 year out of those born in the reporting year;

m0 - those who died in the reporting year under the age of 1 year out of those born in the previous year;

N1 - the number of births in the reporting year;

N0 is the number of births in the last year.

Age-specific mortality rates and associated survival rates from one age to another are reflected in the mortality table. The main indicator of mortality tables is life expectancy at birth, that is, the number of years that, on average, one person from the generation born would have to live, provided that throughout the life of this generation, the mortality rate at each age remains the same as in years for which the indicator is calculated. Life expectancy is the most adequate characteristic of the current level of mortality at all ages. Life expectancy for persons who have reached the age of x is the average number of years that those who have reached this age would have to live if the current mortality rate were maintained at each subsequent age.

The population of individual settlements, regions changes not only as a result of natural movement, but also as a result of mechanical movement or territorial movements of individuals, that is, due to population migration

In demographic statistics, the mechanical movement of the population within a country or from one country to another is called population migration. Migration consists of two opposite flows: on the one hand, it is the entry of the population into a certain region or country, or immigration, and, on the other hand, it is the departure of the population from a given region or country, or emigration.

Distinguish between internal and external migration. Internal migration is the movement of a population within a certain territory. Migration that occurs within the boundaries of one state is called intrastate. External migration is the movement of the population across the borders of the territory. In the case when migration flows cross the borders of the state, migration is called international.

The absolute indicators of the mechanical movement of the population are:

Number of arrivals (P);

The number of dropouts (B);

Gross migration, or gross migration (Q) - the totality of migrants in a given territory for a certain period of time:

Migration population growth (mechanical growth), or net migration, is an indicator that characterizes the result of the territorial movement of the population:

∆mech= P-V

Since indicators of the volume of migration depend on the population of the respective territory, relative indicators are used to analyze migration processes.

Migration intensity indicators characterize the frequency of cases of change of residence in the total population over a certain period. The most commonly used general coefficients of migration intensity per 1000 or 10000 inhabitants per year are relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population. In order to avoid random deviations in migration processes in individual years, average migration rates for a number of years (for example, for 5 years) are also calculated. Intensity factors can be calculated for arrivals, departures, migration gain, as well as for various population groups.

The general coefficient of migration intensity is the ratio of the absolute mechanical increase or decrease in the population per year to the average annual population per 1000 people and is calculated by the formula:

KS= Kp - Kv

The turnover migration intensity coefficient is determined by the formula:

Kmgr.vol.=

Turnover migration efficiency ratio:

Kef. mgr.=

Overall migration intensity factor upon arrival:

General coefficient of intensity of migration by departure:

The coefficients calculated for each thousand of the average annual population are called general. Special migration rates are determined for individual population groups. Migration is of great economic importance as a factor in changing the size, composition and distribution of the population.

Thus, we saw that the analysis of the demographic situation consists of many indicators. And on their basis, I would like to characterize the demographic situation of the Chuvash Republic.

Chapter 2. Modern demographic situation

Chuvash Republic

Describing the trends in demographic development, I would like to highlight the following main points.

The permanent population of our country in 2004 amounted to 143.5 million people, including 104.7 million people in urban areas and 38.75 million people in rural areas, which decreased by 1.5 compared to the last census. million people, while urban population decreased by 1.6 million people, while the rural population increased by 1.1 million people.

Data available for one of the regions, thousand people:

Population at the beginning of the year 2690

During a year:

born 35.0

died 21.5

arrived 29.8

dropped out 22.3

Define:

Coefficients of natural movement of the population - fertility, mortality, natural increase (loss), turnover, reproduction efficiency.

The coefficient of vitality of the population.

Migration coefficients: arrivals, departures, mechanical growth; intensity of migration turnover, efficiency of migration.

Show the role of natural growth and migration in the formation of the region's population.

Solution:

1. Find the population at the end of the year according to the balance sheet:

S K \u003d S H + N + P - M - B,

S H, S K - population at the beginning and end of the year,

N, M, P, V - the number of births, deaths, arrivals and departures.

S K \u003d 2,690 + 35 + 29.8 - 21.5 - 22.3 \u003d 2,711 thousand people.

2. To calculate the relative indicators of reproduction, it is necessary to know the average annual population.

Since the population at the beginning and end of the year is known, we determine the average population using the simple arithmetic mean formula:

3. The birth rate is calculated by the formula:

4. The mortality rate is calculated by the formula:

5. The coefficient of natural increase can be determined by the formula:

For every thousand people of the population, 13 children were born during the year, approximately 8 people died, and the natural increase was 5 people.

6. The population turnover rate is calculated by the formula:

The number of births and deaths per 1,000 people per year is 21 on average.

7. Reproduction efficiency ratio shows the proportion of natural increase in the total turnover of the population.

The coefficient of economy of population reproduction is equal to:

Consequently, in the region, the share of natural increase in the total turnover of the population is 24%.

8. Determine the vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky-Pearl index) or the depopulation coefficient, which is the ratio of the number of births to the number of deaths (per year) according to the formula:

The vitality coefficient is greater than one with positive natural population growth.

Let us calculate the indicators of the mechanical movement (migration) of the population.

9. The mechanical movement (migration) of the population is the arrival in a given locality and exit from it.

The arrival rate is determined by the formula:

For every 1,000 people in the population, an average of 11 arrived annually.

10. The retirement rate is determined by the formula:

The number of dropouts for every 1,000 people in the population averaged about 8 people per year.

11. The coefficient of migration (mechanical growth) is calculated in two ways:

The influx of population into this territory amounted to 3 people for every 1000 people of the population.

12. The coefficient of intensity of migration turnover can be found in two ways.