APR - what is it? ATP - transcript. History of Asia-Pacific countries

Geopolitics of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). 1. Asia-Pacific region: composition and features of development 2. Features of Japan as a geopolitical subject 3. Geopolitical challenges of China. 4. Is Korea on the path to reunification? 5. India is a strategic partner 6. Asian geopolitics of Russia

LITERATURE: Shimotomai N. The Cold War in East Asia and the problem of the “Northern Territories” // Polis. 2008. No. 6. Zotov G. Friend, give away half the Kuril Islands // Arguments and Facts (hereinafter Ai. F). 2005. No. 15, 16. Ostro Honshu. What is the threat of an earthquake in Japan to the world and Russia // Rossiyskaya Gazeta (hereinafter referred to as RG). – 2011. – March 17 -23. The China factor in the new century // Pro et Contra. – 2005. - No. 3. Kulpin-Gubaidulin E. S. Russia and China: problems of security and cooperation // Polis. 2008. No. 6. Zotov G. Will Vladivostok become Haishenvai? // Aif. 2012. No. 16. Ovchinnikov Vs. The problem of “Man-mouths” // RG. 2010. April 1. Makarov D. Will China strangle Russia in its arms? //Ai. F. 2005. No. 36. Toloraya G. The Korean Peninsula on the Path of Stability // MEI. MO. 2008. - No. 1. Ships entered this harbor // RG. – 2010. – October 7 Lavrov S. India has earned trust // RG. - 2007 – January 31. China is angry. 2009. (bestseller in the Chinese book market). Internet Inozemtsev V. Word and deed: Meet China / http: //www. Vedomosti. ru.

Asia-Pacific Region (APR) Back at the end of the 19th century, American Secretary of State John HAY stated: “The Mediterranean Sea is the ocean of the past, the Atlantic is the ocean of the present, the Pacific is the ocean of the future. And, indeed, as if confirming Hay’s predictions, the Asia-Pacific region (APR) has become the most dynamically developing region of the world over the past two decades. This region, covering countries adjacent to the Pacific Ocean, is home to approximately half of the world's population.

Asia-Pacific is a term that refers to the countries located along the perimeter of the Pacific Ocean and the numerous island states in the ocean itself. In total, the Asia-Pacific region has 26 countries, including China, Russia, the USA, Canada, Australia, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, New Zealand, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile. The total population is 3.5 billion people. The Asia-Pacific region is one of the world's largest centers of trade, financial resources and production. The Asia-Pacific region occupies a leading position in international trade and production (40% of all trade operations and 60% of global industry. The Asia-Pacific region has inexhaustible labor resources.

The main geo-subjects of the Asia-Pacific region are the zone of application of the geopolitical interests of the three main nuclear powers: the United States. Russia, China, the three most powerful economic powers: the USA, China, Japan, the two most populated countries in the world: China and India. Russia in this part of the world has neither the economic power nor the population capable of quickly increasing such power, so it needs to develop reasonable integration economic ties and maintain a naval presence.

Model “Flock of flying geese”. The economic development of the Asia-Pacific countries followed the “Flock of Flying Geese” model. Japan was the first to take off back in the 60s of the last century; its example was followed by the “four Asian dragons: Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Then they were joined by the countries of Southeast Asia: New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and other states of Indochina. At a rapid pace, the largest “goose” in Asia, China, became the vanguard of those who took off. It is no coincidence that today the attention of the whole world is focused on this region.

Synthesis of traditions and modernity Economic growth rates in the leading countries of the region exceeded similar rates in the United States and Europe. There have been many explanations for this phenomenon. It is believed that the main reason for the accelerated modernization of the Asia-Pacific countries was the optimal synthesis in the development of elements of tradition and modernity. What Russia lacks. Another important factor in the accelerated development of the region was the higher role of the state than in the West. Here the necessary balance was found between the market and government regulation.

Japanese spirit and Western technology In each country, these factors manifested themselves differently; for example, the rise of Japan is explained by a peculiar combination of the “Japanese spirit” with Western technology. Relying on centuries-old national and religious traditions in Japan, it was possible to transform every Japanese from a samurai-bandit of the 19th century into a samurai-worker of the 20th century, acting precisely and energetically in accordance with the goal. The whole world is once again convinced of this during the disaster that befell the Japanese. Some publicists call the Japanese system, not without reason, the “non-capitalist market economy of Japan.”

Japan's place in the world Japan (a member of the UN since 1956) ranks third in the world in terms of GDP, fourth in terms of exports and sixth in terms of imports, tenth in terms of HDI. Japan has one of the highest life expectancies (2009 – more than 82 years). Japan is one of the leading countries in scientific research, especially in high technology, biomedicine and robotics. Japan ranks third in terms of funds spent on science, first in the production and use of robots.

Participation in international relations Japan actively participates in international relations and improves ties with important partners around the world. In March 2007, it signed a joint declaration on security cooperation with Australia[, and in October 2008 - with India. But Japan has the closest relations with the United States of America. They are based on the Cooperation and Security Treaty between the United States and Japan (1960).

Features of the Japanese Army The ninth article of the Japanese Constitution proclaims the state's renunciation of war as a way of resolving international disputes, and, as a result, the creation of its own ground forces, navy and air force. Despite the fact that the article provides for the state's renunciation of the right to wage war and have armed forces, Japan is de facto increasing its military potential, the army - the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, using either China's ambitions or the threats of North Korea as a pretext. From a formal point of view, the Japanese army is considered a special type of police force; its activities are formally limited only to the defense of the country. However, in May 2007, the Upper House of Japan's Diet approved a government-drafted referendum bill that could pave the way for a revision of the constitution and the repeal of some of its pacifist provisions.

Territorial disputes Moreover, Japan is involved in territorial disputes with several neighboring states. According to the official Japanese position, the southern Kuril Islands, which are de facto part of Russia, are part of Japanese territory. Because of this issue, a peace treaty has not yet been signed between Japan and Russia. Japan disputes ownership of the South Korean-controlled Liancourt Islands. China and Taiwan dispute ownership of the Senkaku Islands, which are controlled by Japan.

Relations between Japan and Russia were established under Catherine II, and they were so friendly that the development of the Far East was carried out jointly by the Russians and the Japanese. This friendship did not suit England and the United States, which pitted the countries against each other in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. As a result, Russia then lost southern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. After the 1917 revolution, Japan took part in the intervention in the Far East. The Soviet Union established diplomatic relations with Japan in 1925. However, Japan's aggressive policy in Asia in the 1930s did not contribute to bilateral relations. Moreover, in 1938, near Lake Khasan, and in 1939, near the Khalkin-Gol River, the Japanese launched major military provocations against Soviet troops, which ended in the defeat of the samurai.

Japan's relations with Russia In World War II, Japan sided with Hitler's Germany and fascist Italy and seized vast territories in Asia. However, she did not dare to oppose the USSR. In August 1945, the Soviet Union, true to its obligations to its allies, declared war on Japan. On September 2, the act of unconditional surrender of Japan was signed. Japan was occupied by American troops.

Relations between Japan and Russia The Southern Kuril Islands went to the USSR following the war. In the 1950s, when the USSR and Japan began to restore relations, the Japanese asked for the islands of Shikotan and Habomai to be returned to them. Khrushchev then made a gesture of goodwill (readiness to give up these islands subject to the conclusion of a peace treaty between the countries. This agreement was recorded in the Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956). But the United States was not interested in a peace treaty between the USSR and Japan. The Americans insisted that Japan put forward the obviously impossible demand to the USSR to transfer the largest and most developed islands of the Kuril chain - Kunashir and Iturup. Otherwise, they threatened not to return the island of Okinawa to Japan and to curtail the economic assistance program. The issue of the islands remained stuck, and the demand for the return of the four islands migrated into modern Japanese politics.

We are talking not only and not so much about the islands, but about the extremely rich in biological resources of the waters around. There are only a dozen places on earth where warm and cold currents meet, water turbulence occurs, food rises from the bottom, followed by huge schools of fish. Secondly, in the 50s of the last century, it never occurred to anyone that oil and gas could be taken from the shelf. Now, as we know, technology allows us to do this. An equally important reason is military. Khrushchev made his offer in exchange for the withdrawal of American troops from Japan. But they are still stationed throughout the country and especially in Okinawa.

Prospects for relations between Japan and the Russian Federation Japan is one of the most organized, law-abiding, and educated countries. Ideology plays a big role in the life of the land of the rising sun. I think that our diplomats will have to work hard to find a way out of this extremely difficult and confusing situation. During his visit to Japan in 2002, Putin announced his recognition of the 1956 declaration, thereby making it clear to Japan that Russia was ready for negotiations on the fate of the two islands of the southern Kuril Islands. Naturally, strengthening mutually beneficial contacts between Russia and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region will contribute to the intensification of Russian-Japanese relations. Let's hope that the tsunami and earthquake of 2011 will have a healing effect on the Japanese elite.

Japan has softened its rhetoric. Indeed, on March 2, 2012, the Government of Japan decided to abandon the use of the term “illegal occupation” in relation to the Russian South Kuril Islands. From now on, official Japanese documents will use the wording “islands occupied without legal grounds.” http: //news .yandex.ru/yandsearch?cl 4 url=ru.tsn.ua/svit

China The impressive results of economic reforms in China have forced people to talk about this country as a serious economic and political force. It is the third largest country in Asia by territory, after Russia and Canada, and is closely connected with its neighbors at all levels - from economics, culture to security. The reforms have significantly accelerated the development of the Chinese economy. Its growth rate turned out to be the highest and amounted to an average of 10% per year. (over 30 years of reforms, the economic potential has increased 15 times, foreign trade turnover has expanded a hundredfold, reaching 2 trillion dollars, which has allowed China to bypass Germany since 2009 and become the main workshop of the world (back in 1985, China was inferior in export volume to the GDR, and in terms of GDP - to the Netherlands).In addition, China came out on top in terms of foreign investment (about 800 billion dollars), in the production of grain, meat, eggs, cotton, cotton fabrics, televisions, coal mining, etc. .

“World peace rests on China”? Napoleon also said about China: “There lies a giant. Let him sleep! When he wakes up, he will shake the world." At the end of the 19th century, the same American Secretary of State John Hay expressed a similar thought: “Peace on Earth rests on China. Whoever understands China from a social, political, economic, religious point of view holds the key to world politics for the next five centuries.” Current American experts believe that China will become a leading economic power no later than 2025. But that's not all when we talk about China.

“Greater China” This is the customary name for the formation of an ethnic community (PRC, Taiwan, Hong Kong (Hong Kong), Macau, Singapore), which takes shape thanks to the integration processes of territories with a purely Chinese population. Hong Kong (former British territory, which became the Chinese city of Hong Kong in 1997), Macau (Portuguese colony, now Macau), Taiwan (considered the territory of China, but after the proclamation of the People's Republic of China, the Kuomintang government went to Taiwan in December 1949, which turned island into a prosperous independent state). Singapore (a city-state on 50 small islands of the Malay Peninsula, population about 3 million people. The Chinese make up 77%, this factor became decisive in the separation of Singapore from Malaysia, of which it was part until 1965, and now it is an independent state, a member UN). According to expert estimates, back in 2002, the total GDP of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan exceeded the GDP of the United States.

“Great China” However, from Great China has a chance to turn into Great, as a result of financial and economic integration with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand..., in which Chinese capital occupies a dominant place. In the Asia-Pacific region, a thesis has even been formed: “Chinese of all countries and territories, unite.” The Chinese in the countries of Southeast Asia make up about 10% of the population, but 86% of the billionaires are Huaqiao, who view the Asia-Pacific region as a single market that has no national borders. China, as part of border demarcation, has already received: 337 square meters. km. near Russia, 407 km. Kazakhstan has 1158 km. Tajikistan has 12 km. in Kyrgyzstan.

Successes in the military sphere and space Successes in the economy have allowed China to achieve serious successes in the military sphere; in recent years, the country has taken first place in purchases of Russian weapons, and now China is striving to produce ultra-modern weapons itself. China's northern group of troops already exceeds the potential of the armed forces of Kazakhstan. If things continue at the same pace in China, then it is quite possible that the 21st century will become the century of Chinese civilization; in any case, books with similar statements and even under such headings are already being published in the country. It is no coincidence that the United States is inviting China to create a G-2 tandem.

Internal problems of the PRC According to the UN Human Development Study in China, per capita income in the most developed provinces exceeds income in the least developed regions by 6 times. The leading Beijing and Shanghai in terms of HDI (about 0.9) are comparable to European countries, while Guizhou and Tibet (0.64 and 0.57) are closer to African countries. The lack of a well-thought-out social policy coupled with increased corruption in the state apparatus led to an aggravation of discontent among townspeople and peasants in the internal provinces, which benefited least from the reforms. Anti-capitalist sentiments and nostalgia for equality during the Cultural Revolution have intensified in the country. According to A. Fedorovsky, head of the Asia-Pacific sector at IMEMO RAS, the Chinese leadership has realized that political authoritarianism does not correspond to an open economy and can threaten development. One should not expect rapid democratization from the leaders of the Communist Party; they will probably build a managed democracy on the model of Singapore or South Korea. But the first steps have already been taken: the CCP has agreed to direct elections of heads of rural self-government, and next in line are elections of heads of “advanced” cities and their districts, modeled on Hong Kong.

Strategic partnership In recent years, great progress has been made in relations between Russia and the PRC according to the formula “STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP THROUGH THE 21st CENTURY.” The next meeting (2011) of Russian President D. Medvedev with Chinese President Hu Jintao confirmed the course of the two states towards strategic cooperation. A 20-year contract for the supply of oil (15 million tons per year) was signed and the Skovorodino-Daqing oil pipeline was launched. In 2011, it was planned to conclude a contract for the supply of Russian gas; its implementation will begin in 2015 and will cover the ever-increasing needs of China. The goal has been set to increase the level of trade turnover between Russia and China to 80 billion. dollars

Reasons for interest in cooperation between China and the Russian Federation Summing up the relationship between Russia and China, it should be noted that objectively both sides are interested in strengthening cooperation. The Chinese and Russian economies complement each other in many aspects. China is capable of supplying Russia with consumer and agricultural goods in exchange for industrial equipment and military equipment. Mutual understanding between neighbors can provide a certain counterbalance to the superpower claims of the United States and Japan. A serious drawback is the structure of exports and imports (SEE DIAGRAMS:

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has a positive influence on Russian-Chinese cooperation, including: See Figure The declaration on its creation was signed in Shanghai in June 2001. At the summit in St. Petersburg in 2002, the Charter of this organization was adopted, which fixed the goals and principles, and the main directions of activity.

Threats of Sinicization At the same time, a number of experts believe that China's economic progress poses a threat to Russia in the form of the gradual Sinicization of sparsely populated areas of Siberia and the Far East. On the border of the Russian Federation and China (4200 km) there is a huge difference in demographic potential. According to various estimates, the population density on both sides of the border is 15-30 times in favor of China. In the border regions of Russia, Chinese communities are being formed, which are gradually displacing indigenous ethnic groups. A special academic discipline has been introduced in Chinese universities that reveals the basics of the resettlement of Chinese to Russia, their behavior in various situations, up to the meeting of compatriots on Russian soil.

“Map” of the Asia-Pacific region according to Mao Zedong Since 1991, China has been slowly but surely absorbing the territory of the post-Soviet space, albeit on a small scale. Russia, as part of the “demarcation,” transferred 337 km to the PRC. sq. of your land. Kazakhstan – 407 km. sq. and Tajikistan is 1158 km. sq. e. Back in 1965, Mao Zedong published a list of territories “lost” by China. These include northern India, Burma, Vietnam, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Kyrgyzstan, and part of Afghanistan. And also Russian Transbaikalia, and the south of the Far East up to Okhotsk. Total 10 million km. sq.

“China is Angry” In 2009, the book “China is Angry” was published in China, which became a bestseller on the national market. “We are the best fit to be leaders of the world!” - this thought pierces the reader’s brain literally from the first lines. Who is stopping China from taking its rightful position? The authors of the book ask a question and immediately answer: the USA and Russia! But where is this America? It’s a long way to get there. And Russia is nearby. As applied to us, the authors call to remember the concept of “living space,” which was unfairly forgotten due to the fact that it was actively used by Hitler’s propaganda. The new “living space” for most Chinese is located in their northern neighbor - Russia, which is compared to a dog in a manger. Most of all, the authors of the book are outraged by the contemplation of thousands of abandoned hectares of black soil, which, in their opinion, should be cultivated by the “great Chinese people.”

"People's Daily" about Russia Cooperation between Russia and China, which has recently been judged positively, seems to be cracking. The day before (April 16, 2012), a leading Chinese newspaper published a critical article on the rule of Medvedev and Putin. In an article entitled “What should Putin do in a new and complex Russia? “It is noted that the drop in public support is due to the fact that dissatisfaction with the socio-economic development of the country is growing in Russia. Contrary to Putin’s statements that our country successfully overcame the 2008 crisis, the material argues that in reality the crisis dealt Russia a serious blow, which showed the fragility and instability of the economy.

North (DPRK) and South Korea Recently, the Korean direction has been of great interest in the Asia-Pacific region. As you know, after World War II, Korea, according to the Potsdam Conference, was divided along the 38th parallel into two zones of occupation: Soviet and American. In the south, in the American zone, the bourgeois state of Korea was formed, and in the north, the Korean People's Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK)

Korea as a potential ally of Russia In 1950-53, a war took place between North and South, which finally divided the people into two countries, communist and capitalist. There are about 24 million people in the DPRK, more than 45 million in South Korea. Russia historically has broad ties with the Korean people and, perhaps more than anyone else, is interested in their unification. The fact is that Koreans, ethnically, are closest in their way of life to Russians; the foothills of Altai are considered the place of their historical homeland. A united Korea can also be a geopolitical ally of Russia in Asia because it fears stronger neighbors in China and Japan.

Kim Jong-un is the youngest head of state Another thing is that the implementation of this role is associated with difficulties in the behavior of North Korea, which, on the one hand, maintains a totalitarian regime led by KIM JONG-UN, declared the “great heir” of Kim Il Sung (grandfather) and Kim Jong Il (father), and, on the other hand, strives to become a nuclear power in violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (March 5, 2012 - 40 years from the date of entry into force). The DPRK explains the need to possess nuclear weapons by the fact that their absence can lead to aggression, as in Iraq, Libya, and Syria. But North Korea's neighbors (especially Japan and South Korea) fear that these weapons could be used against them. In this they are supported by the Americans, who declared the DPRK, along with Iran and Syria, a “rogue” state.

India is an enviable geopolitical ally No less than in stabilizing the Korean Peninsula, Russia is interested in maintaining good neighborly relations with India, since it occupies a strategic position on the Eurasian continent. Even during the times of confrontation between socialism and capitalism, INDIA led the non-alignment movement of the 3rd world countries and treated the USSR with undisguised sympathy.

India is an enviable geopolitical ally India, which ranks second in terms of population and fourth in terms of GDP, is important as a priority geopolitical partner because it, like no other Asian state, ensures the balance of power in the region. An alliance with it allows Russia to feel more confident in relations with the United States, which is relying on an alliance with Pakistan, with which India had three military conflicts over the disputed territory of Kashmir. And also to balance positions with China.

Bilateral cooperation Today, India and Russia maintain strong ties in the fields of economics, foreign trade, defense, space and nuclear energy. Between the two countries there is a certain unity of approaches to both political and economic problems. Specific examples of successful bilateral cooperation in the energy sector include Indian investments in the Sakhalin-1 oil project and Russian assistance in the construction of a nuclear power plant.

Geopolitical forecasts As a geopolitical hypothesis, the possibility of a close strategic partnership between Russia, India and China - the Moscow-Delhi-Beijing triangle - is often discussed. Many agree that such cooperation would contribute to the creation of a multipolar world. However, plans to create such a “triangle” (led by the United States) also exist in the United States Department of State, where India is also considered as a potential counterweight if it is not possible to reach an agreement with China.

Russia's advantages Our advantages lie in the fact that with the rise of Islamic terrorism in this part of the world, threats to the national security of the Indian state, 15% of whose population profess Islam, have increased. Therefore, Russia is an important guarantor of geopolitical security for India. After testing nuclear weapons (in 1999), India's status increased; in addition, good relations with India are also important because it has not yet declared its geopolitical ambitions in the region, being a kind of geopolitical counterweight.

Countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Asia-Pacific region of the Asia-Pacific region The foundations of modern integration policy were laid in the works of a prominent representative of the geopolitical school of continentalists, Carl Schmitt.

Just look at his theory of large spaces, with the natural desire of states for supranational associations based on ethnic and cultural pluralism, broad autonomy limited only by strategic centralism. Oddly enough, most of the integration today includes the Rimland countries and, apparently, this is the desire to resist both tellurocracies and thalassocracies.

And only the Asia-Pacific region is the only region of the world in which representatives of all types of civilizations Heartland, Rimland, World island are rapidly integrating. This is evidenced by the formation of the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Zone by APEC in 1989. Today it includes 21 states and territories: Australia, Brunei, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Canada, China, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Russia, Singapore, USA, Thailand, Taiwan, Philippines, Chile, Japan.

Not accepted, but submitted applications from India, Cambodia, Macau, Mongolia, Pakistan, Panama, Sri Lanka. Their reception may take place no earlier than 2007, because a ten-year moratorium on further expansion of the organization was adopted. Its members account for 56 of the world's gross product, 45 of the world's exports, 45 of the world's imports, the average annual GDP growth in them is 3.1 out of 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council 3 are located in this region: the USA, China, Russia.

All decisions in APEC are made on the basis of consensus; the permanent secretariat is located in Singapore. The main task of the organization is to form a system of free and open trade and investment in the region, and ultimately to create in developed countries by 2004 and in developing countries by 2020 the most favorable conditions for the free movement of capital, goods and services.

Those. The leading role belongs to the economic geopolitical factor. Its implementation takes place through priority cooperation programs. 1. Creation of regional economic infrastructure transport, computer science, communications, energy, tourism, development of research institutes support of small and medium-sized businesses environmental protection development of labor resources. 2. Accelerated voluntary sectoral liberalization opening of markets for selected goods 9 regions 6 new information technologies and communications energy equipment chemical goods fish and fish products timber medical equipment toys jewelry goods and services related to environmental protection.

These sectors of the economy annually produce goods worth $760 billion. Oil crops and products made from them, food markets, natural and synthetic rubber, fertilizers, cars, civil aircraft. However, the implementation of these plans is quite problematic due to differences in the level of economic development of the participants.

Here are countries with established highly developed economies Canada, USA, Japan, NIS Indonesia, Malaysia, etc., the backward countries of Papua New Guinea. This leads to a system of higher import duties on certain goods in less developed countries. Although, some developed countries do not abandon protectionist measures, for example, Japan on food imports. This situation is a consequence of the general political state of the region. Which is determined by the following features. 1. The existence of several large centers of power in the Asia-Pacific region, represented mainly by groupings of ASEAN, ANZUS, ANZUS, OAS, etc. states. with a small number of ordinary people, as well as countries not involved in the zones of influence. 2. The combination in one region of several types of cultures, socio-political systems socialism capitalism feudalism, etc., as well as different economic models within the same socio-political system.

China. 3. Many countries in the region, powerful economically and technologically, but humiliated by their long stay on the sidelines in the world economy, face a difficult choice between the objective need for their integration and the political, psychological, economic need to defend national interests and cultural identity. 4. The region has very high rates of economic development of the Asian component. 5. The presence of three official nuclear powers Russia, the USA, China, at least three threshold states of the DPRK, ROK, Taiwan, Japan, which has the technical capabilities to create nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them to the target. 6. The accelerating arms race in the region since 1989 has seen more weapons imported here than into the Middle East. 7. The instability of the internal situation of a number of states in the foreseeable future in the Russian Federation, North Korea, Cambodia, Taiwan and the uncertainty of the future foreign policy course of most Asia-Pacific countries, including the USA and Japan. 8. The unevenness in providing Asia-Pacific countries with high-quality energy resources gives rise to a number of shelf border disputes.

It is obvious that the political landscape of the Asia-Pacific region cannot yet be formed on a multilateral basis.

Its framework consists of bilateral relations.

And first of all, between the USA, Japan, China, without forming a triangle. Let's consider this situation in more detail. The US is on the strategic defensive. After the collapse of the socialist system, the USSR, and the United States, it became much more difficult to influence Japan through the mechanism of the bilateral security treaty of 1960, and to influence China by playing the Moscow card.

Therefore, the question of the prospects for relations with these states has become acute. US-Japan relations. Their core is economic interaction, although it is precisely this that creates a significant problem for the United States: a trade deficit of 40-60 billion dollars, especially in trade in industrial products. There is an active struggle between these countries for markets for products and capital investments, primarily in the Asian part of the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese investments here amount to 90 billion dollars, American exports there are only 30, and are only 50 of the Japanese.

However, both sides are interested in each other. Japan needs to keep open the vast US market and NAFTA as a whole, maintain US military guarantees in the face of a rapidly growing China, which also has a territorial dispute with Japan, US support for Japan's territorial claims to Russia, US guarantee for energy supplies from the Middle East, military presence to ensure security .

The United States is interested in exporting agricultural products and military equipment to Japan and gaining access to civilian technologies in an effort to break into the consumer goods market. American-Chinese relations have long been based on military-political competition with the USSR. After its collapse, China itself became a competitor. Despite the significance of China’s economic power, we have to take into account the fact that the United States is opposed by the entire Greater Chinese Economy zone, which extends far beyond the borders of the PRC. China's economic power translates into an influx of cheap consumer goods into the United States and an annual trade deficit in favor of China of $15 billion. This is competition for American light industry.

China's military buildup is weakening the US position in the region. However, in general, the United States is interested in preserving the capacious Chinese market. Mutual economic dependence can be reduced due to increased self-sufficiency of the BKE and NAFTA. Then there may be a clash of interests between the American concept of the Pacific era led by the United States and the Beijing idea of ​​a century of Chinese civilization.

Japan-China relations. With all their diversity, we are not talking about a true union between these states. Previously, the joint opposition of the USSR and Japan's generous economic assistance ensured some kind of mutual understanding. But the disappearance of the need for unity in the face of the Soviet military threat, the weakening of American positions in the Asia-Pacific region, and the intensification of the struggle between the two countries for the markets of the region are strengthening the Japanese-Chinese contradictions.

China views Japan's peacekeeping efforts beyond its borders as a likely prelude to new Japanese military expansion. And despite the growth of bilateral trade in industrial products, Japanese business activity in the PRC is specific; investments are concentrated in Manchuria, the zone of Japanese expansion of the 30s. Moreover, against the backdrop of 100 years of recurring conflicts and frequent, if not constant, tensions, the PRC and Japan continue modernizing their military capabilities, strengthening their economic positions in the region and talking with irritation about each other’s intentions and future role in the Asia-Pacific region. Geopolitical orientation of the second-order countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Their influence on the development and balance of power in the region will increase. This is due, firstly, to the struggle for leadership in the region between the United States, Japan and China, which stimulated a sharp increase in military power by all Asia-Pacific countries. Secondly, the penetration of second-tier states into the markets of industrial giants. 1. ASEAN The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is today moving from solving purely economic problems to coordinating foreign policy and security strategy. Contacts between the association countries and China are the most complex.

Most of the states are associated with the BKE zone; in each of them, Chinese entrepreneurs occupy leading positions in industry and trade.

The proximity to a military and economic giant, suffering from an overpopulation and without clear long-term guidelines for democratic development, forces them to actively arm themselves, oppose the reduction of the American presence in the Asia-Pacific region, and not focus on the topic of Japanese crimes during the Second World War in Southeast Asia. 2. Vietnam is actively drawing closer to Japan, strives for normal economic and political relations with the United States, and does not refuse interaction with Russia.

But there are many problems with the PRC; relations are burdened by the border war of 1979, China’s seizure of the disputed Paracel Islands, and the explosive dispute over the oil-bearing shelf of the Spartly Islands in 1974. 3. Taiwan values ​​close ties with Japan and the United States. Despite the growth of economic relations with China, political rapprochement between the two countries is hardly possible for historical reasons.

In 1949, after the victory of the people's revolution in China and the proclamation of the People's Republic of China, the remnants of the overthrown Kuomintang regime fled to Taiwan thanks to the support of the United States, the representative of Taiwan from 1949 to 1971. took China's place in the UN; the establishment of diplomatic relations between the PRC and the United States in 1979 did not lead to a solution to the Taiwan issue; the US administration continues to supply Taiwan with weapons worth up to $700 million annually; this indicates that the United States still adheres to the politics of the two Chinas.

An attempt by the PRC to resort to forceful pressure could result in an acute conflict. 4. Republic of Korea, DPRK. During the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. Korea was occupied by Japan.

In August 1945, Korea north of the 38th parallel was liberated by the Soviet Army from the Japanese, and US troops were brought into the southern part of the peninsula in September 1945 after the surrender of Japan. In May 1948, elections were held in South Korea and the Republic of Korea was proclaimed with its capital in Seoul. In response to this, in August 1948, the Korean People's Democratic Republic was proclaimed with its capital in Pyongyang.

Between them in 1950 53. A war broke out for dominance on the Korean Peninsula. But since the armed forces of other states of the USA, USSR, and China were drawn into this conflict, an armistice agreement was concluded in Korea in 1953. The state of truce continues to this day. The unification of both Koreas belongs more to the section of prophecies, although the ROK really hopes for this, because with unification, another regional superpower with powerful armed forces, a strong economy, and ambitions may appear.

It is unlikely that it will focus on one of the first-tier powers; moreover, it experiences strong and mutual historically determined hostility towards the PRC and Japan. 5. Australia and New Zealand. Despite their apparent detachment from active participation in regional affairs, they are still bound by security agreements with the United States and Great Britain, and are economically oriented toward Japan and the United States. Geopolitical interests of Russia in the Asia-Pacific region. Initially, Russian interests were shaped by a group of political and military-strategic factors.

These include the desire of the Russian Far East to gain political independence. Far Eastern Republic 1920-22. deterrence of strategic opponents during the Cold War, China, Japan, and the United States. This could not but affect the development of the Far East as a whole. Particular attention to military construction, Siberian divisions were considered one of the most combat-ready, and the Pacific Navy was one of the most powerful units of the armed forces of the USSR and its complete lack of influence on the formation of the economic potential of the region.

At the present stage of development, it is the weakness of the infrastructure complex of the Far East that acts as the main limiting factor in the development of economic relations between Russia and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. In some areas, transportation difficulties not only hinder the growth of trade turnover, but also cause a decrease in trade volumes. To solve this problem, the Federal Target Program for Economic and Social Development of the Far East and Transbaikalia for 1996–2005 was developed in 1992. It involves expanding the rights and powers of regions in foreign economic activity, government guarantees to domestic and foreign investors, stable tax and customs legislation, priority lending to government and commercial programs with the participation of Asia-Pacific countries in various areas.

It was noted that it is necessary to use the interest of foreign countries in the Asia-Pacific region in cooperation with the Russian Federation in the field of energy, biotechnology, communications, the aviation industry, and the conversion of defense industries.

There are 6 more federal target programs, to one degree or another related to the development of individual regions of Siberia and the Far East. At the national level, the significance of the Asia-Pacific region for Russia can be determined by the following aspects. 1. In the Asia-Pacific region, Russia is dealing with the initial phase of integration processes, which creates more favorable conditions for entering the economy of the region. 2. Opportunities are opening up for improving the structure of Russian exports: structural restructuring of industry in most countries in the region, modernization of agriculture, expansion and improvement of communication and transport systems. All this predetermines an increase in demand for machines, equipment, and technologies. 3. Liberalization of trade in the Asia-Pacific region creates favorable conditions for Russian exporters of energy equipment, chemical goods, petroleum products, and dual-use aviation. 4. Due to the Asia-Pacific region, the efficiency of Russian imports can be increased and the quality of Asian goods meets world standards at often lower prices compared to our leading partner Western Europe. 5. Expanding cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region could help equalize the levels of socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as weaken the centrifugal tendencies in Siberia and the Far East. 6. There is a chance to use in practice the experience of Asia-Pacific countries in organizing and managing foreign economic relations.

Aside from the declared benefits, it is worth paying attention to the actual volumes of cooperation. Russian trade with the Asia-Pacific region amounts to 18-22 billion dollars annually, which is about 33 times Russian trade turnover.

In 1997, the main trading partners of the Russian Federation included 2 countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the USA 6.2 trade turnover of the Russian Federation and China 3.8. Of the ten countries that account for 34 unorganized shuttle Russian imports, two also belong to the Asia-Pacific region, China and Taiwan.

The main export items to the countries of the region are machinery and equipment, vehicles, oil and petroleum products, rolled ferrous metals, and chemical products.

Imports are dominated by agricultural raw materials, food and industrial goods: tea, coffee, rubber, spices, leather and jute raw materials, etc. Due to imports from the region, a significant part of the needs of the population of the Russian Federation is satisfied in a wide range of food products: tea 70, coffee 50, palm oil 100, raw materials for light industry: leather 70, jute 100, fabrics 40, rubber and latex 100. The main suppliers are China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, the Republic of Korea, etc. Therefore, Russia’s desire to participate in the affairs of the Asia-Pacific region seems quite natural. In 1992, it joined the international non-governmental regional organization STES Council for Pacific Economic Cooperation, and in 1994 became a member of the TPP of the Pacific Economic Council.

The apotheosis of political integration can be considered the accession of Russia to APEC in 1997. Obviously, given the modern Western geopolitical vector of development of the Russian Federation, the Asia-Pacific region occupies only 4th place in the list of Russian priorities, despite all its enormous potential, and in order for this vector to changed its direction to the east, the Russian Federation first of all needs to solve the regional problems of the Far East.

They are the main obstacle to the country’s integration into the Asia-Pacific region. 2.2. India3.3.2. India India, as a zone of geopolitical interests of Russia, began to be perceived based on the totality of actions, primarily political factors.

This is, in principle, the negative attitude of the United States towards the liberation struggle of the peoples of the colonies, the Cold War and the military-political confrontation between the USSR and the USA, Indo-Pakistani contradictions over Kashmir and the deterioration of relations between India and the USSR with China, US support for China and Pakistan. The process of political rapprochement between the USSR and India served as a good basis for economic, scientific and technical cooperation. 1. Having encountered a negative attitude from the West towards industrialization plans, India back in the 50s turned for help to the USSR, which was the first to support its desire to develop the economy on a planned basis with an emphasis on the creation of heavy industry.

In 1956-70, 50 Soviet loans went to the development of metallurgy, 18 to oil production, 9 to heavy engineering, 5 to the mining industry. In the 80s, facilities built with the assistance of the USSR provided about 40 iron and steel, 80 metallurgical equipment and more than 55 power equipment, 10 electricity, a significant portion of petroleum products, coal, instruments, medical supplies, etc. Moreover, Soviet loans were linked to the Indian five-year plans.

This served as a guarantee of their reliability and efficiency. 2. Simultaneously with the construction of industrial facilities, the USSR transferred technology to India and attracted Indian specialists to design work to transfer experience.

Large-scale training of more than 120 thousand Indian specialists was carried out. The scale of cooperation in the field of science and technology is evidenced by the following data: in the 80s, 68 Soviet and 48 Indian research institutes worked on 112 joint projects in the field of geology, geophysics, cybernetics, crystallography, petrochemistry, engineering, alternative energy sources, and space. 3. China's rapprochement with Pakistan and the United States stimulated defense cooperation between India and the USSR.

In the 70s, the USSR accounted for 80% of Indian arms imports. And although this share decreased in subsequent years, until the collapse of the USSR, it remained the main supplier of weapons and military equipment to India. The collapse of the Soviet Union and changes in its former territory and in the world as a whole negatively affected Russian-Indian relations, especially on their economic component. If in 1991 the USSR's share in India's exports was 16, and in imports 6 more than 10 of foreign trade turnover, then in 1984 it was 2.9 and 1.1, respectively, less than 2 of foreign trade turnover.

This is despite the fact that Russia accounted for about 80% of Soviet-Indian trade within the USSR. In addition to the purely economic reasons for this collapse in cooperation, it is worth paying attention to the political ones. This is the end of the Cold War, the gradual improvement of relations with China and the decline in the interest of new Russian politicians in India as a geopolitical ally. And in general, a sharp reorientation of Russian foreign policy towards Western European countries.

However, Russia's hopes for the West have not entirely justified themselves. Russia did not find support there for improving the geopolitical situation at its own state borders. Moreover, the West shows a wary attitude towards integration processes in the CIS. His desire not to take into account Russian interests manifested itself quite quickly in the form of NATO’s advance to the east. Having weakened its foreign policy positions in Asia, including India, the Russian Federation found itself alone with the strong and organized Western community.

The unnaturalness of such a situation is obvious; the country, being 23 Asian, cannot limit itself only to the Western geopolitical vector of development. Understanding this led to the desire of both sides to establish interaction and move from the previous model of relations between the USSR and India, strategic allies, to the new model, Russia and India, strategic partners. Hence the surge in political activity, the signing of the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, the Moscow Declaration on the protection of the interests of multinational states, the Declaration on further deepening cooperation, the agreement on military cooperation, a package of documents, including agreements on the avoidance of double taxation, on cooperation and mutual understanding in customs matters, in matters of plant protection, in in the field of physical culture and sports, the establishment of the Intergovernmental Russian-Indian Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural Cooperation.

The need for cooperation between Russia and India at the regional level is determined by the very fact of their belonging to a single geopolitical space.

Both states consider relations with neighbors to be a priority of their own foreign policy. This means that the areas located between the borders of Russia and India fall into the zone of their mutual interests and these interests do not collide, but cooperation with the countries of Central Asia coincides, as opposed to the activity of Islamic states here, helping to end the war in Afghanistan and normalizing the situation on the Afghan-Tajik border in order to make our own borders more secure, resolving the Indo-Pakistani conflict regarding Kashmir through political means, combating terrorism and drug trafficking in the region, good neighborly relations with China.

There are favorable opportunities for increasing economic cooperation. The economies of both countries complement each other. Some components of such cooperation have already been determined by intergovernmental agreements, these are electric power, metallurgy, electronics, computer science, and nuclear physics.

A strong argument in favor of cooperation is India's debt to Russia for previously granted loans, which exceeds $10 billion. If we consider that among all the debtors of the former USSR, India was almost the only country that regularly paid its debts, it becomes clear that for For the Russian economy, which is in deep crisis, these payments represent significant support.

It is worthwhile to dwell in more detail on cooperation in the field of defense, because... its effectiveness is a derivative of political and economic geopolitical factors. Unlike previous years, a characteristic feature of the new stage of military cooperation was not only direct supplies of domestic weapons and military equipment or the sale of licenses, but also interaction in the field of applied defense research, as well as joint production of weapons and equipment for sale to third countries.

This is extremely important for India, because, despite the rapid growth in exports of national defense products in value terms, by the mid-90s it was only $50 million. For Russia, it is important that, unlike a number of others, the Indian arms market is expanding. 1. The most expensive product on the world arms market is aviation. A significant part of the export supplies of Russian fighters goes to India. In 1995, an agreement was concluded with the MIG-MAPO company for the supply of 30 modernized MiG-29M fighters, $890 million, which form the basis of Indian air defense. In 1996, an agreement was concluded for the supply of 40 multi-role fighters to India. tactical fighters Su-30MKI $1.8 billion agreement to modernize 125 MiG-21 bis aircraft previously entered service with the Indian Air Force, which will extend their service life for another 15 years creation of a joint venture HAL-MIG-MAPO to service fighters MIG 2127 Asia-wide agreement for the supply of 66 MIG-AT training aircraft. The basis of Indian transport aviation and dual-purpose aircraft continues to be Russian-Soviet-made aircraft.

These are 120 light military transport aircraft An-32, An-24, IL-76. The fleet of transport and landing helicopters is no less impressive: 80 domestic Mi-17, 50 Mi-8, 10 Mi-26. With the participation of Russia, a light 14-seat military transport aircraft LTA is also being developed. The market for the Russian military-industrial complex is vast. 2. As for land weapons, it is worth noting that India is implementing a broad program to re-equip them with weapons of national production, but for many types of equipment it is dependent on the Russian manufacturer Russian anti-aircraft missile systems Osa-AKM, Pechora, Kvadrat global anti-aircraft missile and artillery systems Tunguska anti-tank missile systems Malyutka, Fagot, Competition artillery guns self-propelled guns with increased firing range, self-propelled howitzers Msta-S multiple launch rocket systems BM-21 Grad, BM-24 Uragan, Smerch tanks T-55, T-72 M armored personnel carriers. 3. India's defense doctrine provides for a significant increase in its military presence in the Arabian Sea. Mastering the global theater of military operations requires re-equipping the navy.

Russian specialists are actively participating in this.

Great importance is attached to equipping them with domestic weapon systems that have no analogues in the world, such as Moskit anti-ship missiles, anti-aircraft systems, etc. Russian know-how is used in the creation of guided missile destroyers Delhi, guided missile frigates Godavari and smaller ships and boats. The total cost of the high-tech package delivered from the Russian Federation to India is estimated at $100 million. And all this against the backdrop of the already created Indian Navy, equipped mainly with Russian-made equipment: anti-submarine ships, a missile submarine with a nuclear power plant , diesel-electric submarines.

Foreign military equipment accounts for the majority of combat aircraft of the Indian armed forces, up to 50 PMP and RK tanks, 60 artillery systems, and up to 90 warships of the main classes.

This does not completely suit the Indian side, but taking into account the complementarity of the national economies of the two countries, it creates good preconditions for military-technical and economic cooperation, maintaining jobs and increasing the pace of technological development of the Russian and Indian economies.

In general, it should be noted that India cannot but be one of the priorities of Russian foreign policy.

By abandoning it, we thereby lose our last ally in Asia and one of the few in the Rimland zone, with the ensuing consequences of dangerous southern borders min, weakening of continental forces max. 2.3. Pakistan3.3.3. Pakistan India and Pakistan play a leading role in the South Asian system of states.

At the same time, their geopolitical aspirations are opposite. For India, the main direction of geopolitical gravity seems to be the east of the APEC member country. Pakistan is closely connected with the states of Western Asia. In the last decade of the current century, there was a sharp drop in trade turnover between Russia and Pakistan. If in the early 90s. it exceeded $300 million, but in 1997 it amounted to only $33 million. The old structure of trade, economic, scientific and technical ties between Russia and Pakistan in the oil and gas complex, energy and metallurgy, based on a system of long-term state lending, ceased to exist.

However, the Russian side continues to assist in providing spare parts and technical expertise to industrial enterprises built with the help of the USSR, and a more active participation in the construction of new facilities is planned. Thus, in August 1997, the Pakistani company Altern Energy Ltd. was registered in Lahore as a shareholder and co-founder of which was the Russian enterprise Russian Diesel.

The purpose of creating the company is the construction and subsequent operation of a power plant based on four diesel generators produced by the Russian co-founder. At the end of the 90s. Pakistani leadership is showing interest in cooperation with Russia in the field of high technology. Certain practical results have already been achieved in this direction. In particular, a contract worth $1 million was signed between the Russian Space Agency and the corresponding Pakistani organization SUPARCO for the launch of the Pakistani satellite Badr-2 by a Russian launch vehicle. 2.4. Near and Middle East3.3.4. Near and Middle East The terms Near East and Middle East are often used in the literature.

These territories include the states of Egypt, Sudan, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Cyprus and Iran, Afghanistan. The priority of the European direction in Russia's policy distracts its attention from the region in question.

However, for both Russia and Europe it acts as a border territory, which means its initial conflict nature forces us to consider the Middle East as a sphere of geopolitical interests for both Russia and the Euro-Atlantic civilization. Before talking about geopolitical interests in this region, it is necessary to highlight the factors determining its development. 1. The Middle East has a traditional significance for its external partners, based on its economic importance.

It remains the largest source of energy resources and capital for the world economy, as well as a sales market for industrial and agricultural products, and an arms market. The region's current 40% share of global oil exports is rising. There are about 180 billion dollars of Middle Eastern origin in foreign banks, and therefore working for non-regional economies. Potential arms markets in the region are estimated at 60-80 billion dollars, of which up to 70 are currently controlled by the United States. 2. The Arab-Israeli settlement process.

As a historical note, we remind you that Israel does not have officially established and recognized borders. This is due to the active expansion of the state into Arab territories in 1948-49. seizure of Palestine 1956 aggression against Egypt with the participation of France and Great Britain 1967 aggression against Egypt, Syria, Jordan 1973 military actions against Egypt and Syria 1982 aggression against Lebanon.

The desire of the world community to stop this process and return the territories seized by Israel to the Arabs led to the creation of the State of Palestine, declared in 1988, recognized by 93 countries as members of the UN. A special role in resolving this conflict is played by multilateral negotiations, which were initially conceived as complementary to bilateral ones, and then turned into an independent mechanism of interaction between the Arabs with the support of Russia and the Israelis with the support of the United States. This interaction bore some fruit in 1996. Palestine was granted cultural autonomy rights. 3. The possibility of a destabilizing impact of the Middle Eastern situation on other adjacent territories is of great concern; a settlement in Western Sahara is being established with great difficulty.

Iraq and Libya live under international sanctions, and civil conflict continues in Algeria. 4. The Islamic factor, which represents the radicalization of mainly opposition movements that politically exploit religious sentiments, although arising on the basis of the political and sociocultural discomfort of the population, is causing concern. Demographic forecasts are alarming: by 2025, the population in the Islamic Crescent states from Casablanca to Istanbul will increase from 200 to 300 million people.

Will the income ratio between Arabs and Eurasians, which now stands at 115, change by then? Moreover, there are now 10 13 million immigrants from Islamic countries in Europe.

Their most numerous communities are located in France 5 million Germany 2 million Great Britain 1 million Netherlands 750 thousand Although, in Europe, the reasons for the radicalization of sentiments among Muslim immigrants are not religious; they are difficulties in adapting to a different cultural environment, social and material instability. 5. The states of the region have significant funds, which, however, they prefer to keep either outside its borders or to save them in internal savings, not using them in business at the regional level. The financial resources of all Arab countries are estimated at 2 trillion. The modern Western strategy towards the Middle East is aimed at creating a security zone, both through active influence on the Arab-Israeli settlement processes taking place there, and through the creation of multilateral regional structures, with its participation in them. A system of such structures is gradually being formed; economic systems of the countries of the Near and Middle East; development of projects on the creation of a military regional road network, in the field of tourism, industry; priority is given to projects that provide an opportunity for direct investment, help regional development and provide the infrastructure necessary for the private sector establishment The 11-nation Mediterranean Forum, as a mechanism for informal discussions on the regional situation and the development of cooperation, is the EU Mediterranean Conference, the desire of the NATO Council to establish direct dialogue with Mediterranean countries that are not members of the bloc in order to promote security and stability in the region.

Thus, having ceased to be a sphere of ideological bloc confrontation, the Middle East is actively being included by the West in its system of interaction, where the main institutions are NATO and the EU. Geopolitical interests of Russia in the region. Unlike the Euro-Atlantic civilization, the Russian Federation, having interests in the Middle East, does not have and is not developing mechanisms for their implementation.

It continues to enjoy the historical capital of political relations with the vast majority of governments and peoples in the region. 1. The American-Soviet confrontation, and the Middle East was one of its main areas, made the region a priority for the USSR.

In addition, there are allegations that the active presence of the USSR in the Middle East was dictated by the interests of this confrontation, stimulated by the Arab-Israeli conflict and the needs of Arab countries for a powerful external ally and a source of weapons as opposed to American support for Israel.

The end of the American-Soviet confrontation led to a natural reduction in Russia's ties with the Middle East, including economic ones. Indeed, the decline was especially noticeable in the arms trade in 1988. The USSR supplied more than $14.5 billion worth of weapons to the region in question; $12.2 billion in 1992. Russia slightly more than $2 billion approx. 8 billion dollars 2. The Russian market of doctors and the higher education system are of interest to the region. 3. Russia and the countries of the region are connected by long-standing and developed ties of a confessional nature, including pilgrimages to the Holy Land, which began in the 12th century. Nowadays, after a long break, the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society is again active in this field, which has begun to organize joint trips of Orthodox and Muslims to Palestine. 4. Russia is a multi-confessional country, the number of Muslims in it is about 20 million. If Western Europe already takes into account the interests of its Muslims, then what can we say about Russia? Muslims there are immigrants, while in Russia they are the indigenous population.

Thus, the Islamic factor for Russia is an internal political circumstance.

Along with the fact that it has a strong impact on Russia’s relationship with the Middle East, it apparently should also be classified as a national security factor. 5. There are reserves for economic cooperation.

Favorable conditions for the further development of bilateral relations have developed with Turkey.

The economic growth of the latter, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 6 7, creates a need for 20 30 million tons of oil and 9 billion m3 of gas. Approximately 6 billion m3 of gas comes from Russia. In connection with the policy of the United States and Western Europe to curb the development of nuclear energy in Iran, Iraq and a number of other countries in the region, Russia has opportunities to cooperate with these countries in the construction of nuclear power plants, the supply of equipment for them and the training of local personnel for their operation.

The same applies to large thermal power plants. Cooperation in this area contributes to solving the problem of the debts of these countries to Russia, which amount to about 30 billion dollars, including Syria 9.7 billion dollars Afghanistan 7.1 Yemen 4.9 Iraq 4.7 billion dollars, as well as the transition of economic cooperation from the simplest forms of foreign trade to more complex technical assistance, joint implementation of projects on new technologies, cooperation, etc. Promising forms of cooperation could be the introduction of the latest technologies for desalination of sea water, which the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf so desperately need.

There are good opportunities in supplying the latest military equipment and training military specialists for its use in the region. The importance of the region for the Russian Federation presupposes an active policy towards both the countries of this region and Russian partners in Middle Eastern affairs located outside it.

Therefore, it actively participates in the structures of the security and cooperation system that are emerging in the region along with the United States, as well as within the framework of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation of the BSEC, OSCE, UN Security Council, including within the framework of peacekeeping missions. The end of the confrontation between the USSR and the USA, which was largely associated with the priority of the Middle East direction in Soviet foreign policy, did not weaken the importance of this region for Russia. In the new geopolitical situation for Russia, the Middle East turns out to be even more significant than in the Cold War era.

The countries of the Near and Middle East such as Turkey and Iran, which are rapidly gaining strength, are pursuing an independent foreign policy and are actively invading the sphere of geopolitical interests of the Russian Federation in Transcaucasia and Central Asia, which aggravates the country’s problems.

The Pacific region is the world's largest market, and its potential is far from being exhausted. Moreover, according to the forecasts of leading experts, the share of this region in the world market will only expand in the future. Let's find out in more detail what the Asia-Pacific region is. Let us separately dwell on the prospects and forecasts of its development.

Territory of the region

First of all, let's find out what the Asia-Pacific region is in territorial terms. Traditionally, the countries that are included in this region are the states located on the shores of the Pacific Ocean, as well as Mongolia and Laos.

The entire Asia-Pacific region can be divided into 4 regions, which correspond to the parts of the world where the states included in it are located: North American, South American, Oceanic and Asian. In addition, the Asian region is conventionally divided into two subregions: this and Southeast Asia.

The North American region includes the following countries: Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Pica, Panama.

The South American region includes the states: Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chile.

The North Asian subregion includes the following countries: China (China), Mongolia, Japan, North Korea, Republic of Korea, Republic of China (Taiwan), Russia. The countries of the Asia-Pacific region of this particular group occupy the largest territory and have in total the highest population.

The Southeast Asia subregion includes the following countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Laos, Brunei, Thailand. Many experts include Myanmar and Nepal here. In addition, in some cases, India also acts as a country included in the Asia-Pacific region, but given that cases of inclusion of India in this region by specialists are still quite rare, and the country itself does not have access to the Pacific Ocean, we will not consider it in as a subject of the Asia-Pacific region.

The Oceanic region includes many, most of which are quite small. Among the largest countries, both territorially and economically, in this area, Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea should be highlighted. Smaller states: Fiji, Solomon Islands, Palau, Nauru, Federation of Micronesia, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Cook Islands, Tonga, Samoa. This also includes many dependent territories, such as Guam, Tokelau, French Polynesia, etc.

History of the region

To more accurately understand what the Pacific region is, you need to delve into its history.

China can be considered the oldest state formation in this region. It is deservedly considered one of the cradles of civilization on earth. The first state formations arose here back in the 3rd millennium BC. e. This makes China the oldest state in the Asia-Pacific region, as, for example, Egypt and Mesopotamia are the oldest civilizations in the Middle East.

Later, states appeared in Southeast Asia (the largest of them was the empire of Kambujadesh), Japan and Korea. China became a territory on which various empires successively replaced, and a kind of cultural and economic center of the region. Even after the formation of the great Eurasian empire of the Mongols in the 13th century, which united the lands of the mainland from Rus' to the Pacific Ocean (in fact, the western part of the modern Asia-Pacific region), the Genghisids made Khanbalik (present-day Beijing) their main capital, and adopted Chinese traditions and culture.

Russia first came to the shores of the Pacific Ocean in the 17th century. Since then, the interests of this state have been inextricably linked with the region. Already in 1689, the Treaty of Nerchinsk was signed - the first official document between Russia and China, which outlined the delimitation of the zones of influence of these countries in the region. Over the next centuries, the Russian Empire expanded its zone of influence in the Far East, which allows us to call the modern Russian Federation an unconditional part of the Asia-Pacific region.

State formations on the western coast of the American continent, which, paradoxically, is the eastern part of the Asia-Pacific region, appeared much later than in Asia. The formation of the Peruvian “kingdom” of Cusco, from which the famous Inca Empire arose in the 15th century, dates back to 1197 AD. The Aztec Empire in Mexico arose even later.

But different parts of the huge region now known as the Asia-Pacific region were fragmented during the period we discussed above, and the inhabitants of the western coast of the Pacific Ocean knew nothing about the inhabitants of the eastern coast, and vice versa. The Asia-Pacific region began to gradually transform into a single whole only after the Great Geographical Discoveries of the 15th-17th centuries. It was then that Columbus discovered America, and Magellan circumnavigated the world. Of course, the integration of the economy at the initial stages proceeded at a rather slow pace, but nevertheless, already in the 16th century, the Philippines was included in the Spanish viceroyalty of New Spain, centered in Mexico.

In 1846, after the cession of Oregon by Great Britain, one of the fastest growing countries of that time, the United States, became a Pacific country. After annexing California two years later, the United States reached the Pacific Ocean in a wide swath and soon became the leading power in the region, significantly influencing its economy and markets. It was after the expansion of the United States to the west coast in the 19th century that the Pacific region began to acquire features of economic unity.

But the Asia-Pacific region acquired a more or less modern political and economic appearance only after the colonial divisions of the 19th century, two world wars and the process of decolonization. During World War II, the Empire of Japan, relying on an alliance with Hitler's Germany, tried to secure a dominant position in the region with the help of military force, but was defeated by the Allied forces.

Modernity

After World War II, like the rest of the world, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region were actually divided into two political camps: the countries of the socialist development model and the capitalist one. In the first camp, the leaders were the USSR and China (although there were also ideological conflicts between these countries), while the United States dominated in the second. Besides the USA, the most economically developed countries of the Asia-Pacific region from the capitalist camp were Canada, Japan and Australia. After some time, it became clear that, despite the presence of many shortcomings, the capitalist (Western) model of economic development has proven itself to be more successful.

Even Japan, defeated after World War II, which chose the Western model of development, thanks to the help of the United States, in a fairly short period of time became one of the most economically developed countries not only in the region, but in the world as a whole. This phenomenon has been called the "Japanese economic miracle." At the end of the 80s, the economy of this country even threatened to take first place in the world in terms of GDP, but this did not happen due to the economic crisis.

In addition, starting from the 60s of the 20th century, the “Four Asian Tigers” demonstrated very high economic indicators. The following countries were called this way: the Republic of Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Their level of development even exceeded the level of some Western European countries. Thailand and the Philippines also demonstrated good rates of development. But in the countries of the socialist camp, in particular, Vietnam, Mongolia, Laos, Cambodia, the development was much worse.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the political situation in the region changed dramatically. Even states such as China abandoned the pure socialist economic model, which, however, allowed the latter to become one of the leaders of the world economy in the future. Similar changes, although not so successfully, occurred in some other socialist countries included in the Asia-Pacific region. Politics took a back seat in Vietnam. There, despite the continued dominance of Marxist ideology, as in China, elements of a market economy were introduced. Cambodia has completely abandoned the socialist doctrine.

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost its leading position in the region both economically and politically, but since the beginning of 2000, demonstrating significant economic growth, it has largely been able to regain what it had lost.

The Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 dealt a significant blow to the region's economy. The "Four Asian Tigers" suffered the most. The crisis abruptly stopped their economic growth. A powerful blow was also dealt to the It was this crisis that became one of the reasons for the default in Russia since 1998. Many of the current problems in the Asia-Pacific region have their origins in these crisis events.

The Chinese economy also suffered, but, in comparison with the above countries, not so much, which made it possible to soon resume growth at an even faster rate. In 2014, China's economy came out on top in the world, surpassing the United States in terms of GDP and purchasing power parity. China remains the leader in this indicator at the present time, although it is still inferior to the United States in terms of nominal GDP. In addition, goods from China now dominate the market in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly due to their relatively low cost.

The global economic year also had a negative impact on the region's economy, but not as detrimentally as the Asian crisis of 1997. Thus, the Asia-Pacific region today is one of the most powerful global economic regions, along with the east coast of America and Western Europe.

Leading countries

The fact that the Asia-Pacific region is a leader in the world economy is proven by the fact that three countries in this region (USA, China and Japan) rank first in the world in terms of GDP (PPP), with China and the USA leading. Third place is occupied by India, which some experts also classify as the Asia-Pacific region. The top ten leaders for this indicator include countries such as Japan, Russia and Indonesia.

The most populated country in the world is also one of the Asia-Pacific countries - China. Today, the population of this country has exceeded 1.3 billion inhabitants. The top ten also includes countries in the region such as the USA and Indonesia. Russia and Japan.

The Asia-Pacific region includes the four largest countries in the world by area: Russia, Canada, China and the United States. In addition, Australia is among the ten largest countries (6th place).

Asia-Pacific as part of the world market

If we consider the totality of the economies of all countries included in the Asia-Pacific region, then we can say with confidence that this region is the largest world market, which, if we take into account all the indicators of the economies of countries such as the USA, China and Russia, the European market at this stage cannot compete. Having outstripped Europe, the Asia-Pacific region made a breakthrough of sorts. Experts predict that the total economy of the EU and other European countries will lag even more significantly behind the economy of the Asia-Pacific region in the future.

Nowadays, the market in the Asia-Pacific region is especially in demand for products that use the latest electronic technologies in their manufacture.

Collaboration and integration

Interstate cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region plays a fairly significant role in coordinating relations between countries. Integration between the various countries of the region is expressed in the creation of various economic and political associations.

The most significant of them are: the political and economic organization ASEAN (Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, Myanmar), the SCO (Russia, China, India, Pakistan and a number of Central Asian CIS countries), the Asian -Pacific Cooperation (APEC) (21 countries in the region, including the USA, China and Russia).

In addition, there are a number of smaller organizations that, unlike those mentioned above, do not cover all areas of economic activity of states, but specialize in individual sectors. For example, he specializes in the financial sector.

Largest economic centers

The largest cities, political and economic centers of the region include: Los Angeles, San Francisco (USA), Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing (China), Taipei (Taiwan), Tokyo (Japan), Seoul (South Korea), Jakarta (Indonesia ), Sydney, Melbourne (Australia), Singapore.

Sometimes the city of Moscow is also named among the centers. Although it is located far from the Pacific Ocean, it is nevertheless the capital and largest metropolis of the largest Pacific power - Russia.

Russia's role in the Asia-Pacific region

The importance of Russia for Asia-Pacific cooperation can hardly be overestimated. She is one of the leaders of the SCO organization, which also includes China, which is one of the largest integration projects in the region. Also, the Russian Federation is the largest country in terms of area that is part of the Asia-Pacific region. Russia also has the honor of being one of the ten largest economies in the world in terms of GDP, which further emphasizes its importance in the region.

The Russian government places its greatest hopes on expanding cooperation with another leader in the region - China.

Development forecasts

The further development of the Asia-Pacific region depends on many economic and political factors. At the same time, we can now say that the region has become one of the leading regions in the world economy. And in the future, it is planned to move world economic centers from Western Europe and specifically to the territory of the Asia-Pacific region.

By 2030, the countries of the region are expected to increase their total GDP by 70%.

Region meaning

The Asia-Pacific region is one of the three largest economic regions in the world, along with Eastern America and Western Europe. But, unlike these regions, where business activity is gradually fading away, the Asia-Pacific region, on the contrary, is a very promising place where the main economic processes are moving.

According to most experts, the Asia-Pacific region is the center that will completely dominate the world economy in the near future.

International relationships

The development of legal norms and mechanisms for regulating international relations in the Asia-Pacific region, as in other regions of the world, is associated with such organizations as: Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC ASEAN Regional Forum ARF Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO, etc. The role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region The Asia-Pacific region unites about 25 countries of the Pacific Ocean. Factors that influenced the allocation of the Asia-Pacific region to a special zone of world development: the redivision of the world after World War II, the United States becomes the leader;...

Asia-Pacific region in the international system.

Asian-Pacific areapolitical and economic term designating countries located along the perimeter Pacific Ocean and numerousisland statesin the ocean itself. The largest cities in the region are Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Seoul, Tokyo, Los Angeles, Sydney, Melbourne, San Francisco, Seattle and Vancouver . The headquarters of many intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations in the Asia-Pacific region are located in Honolulu (Hawaii).

The region has a wide variety of economies and resources: dynamically developing Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, high technology Japan, Korea , Taiwan and the West USA , Natural resources Australia, Canada, Philippines and Russian Far East, human resources China and Indonesia, high agriculturalperformance Chile, New Zealand, Philippines and USA.

Many economists believe that with the gradual decline of the old industrial centers in Europe and in the eastern United States, the center of global economic activity may shift to the Asia-Pacific region.

The development of law, norms and mechanisms for regulating international relations in the Asia-Pacific region, as in other regions of the world, is associated with such organizations as:Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC), ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF), Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO ) etc. Their role is great in creating rights and norms for liberalization economic cooperation, economic integration, introduction of democratic forms of interstate communication, ensuring security. Particular attention is paid to the creation of organizational and legal foundations for countering terrorism.

The role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region

The Asia-Pacific region unites about 25 countries of the Pacific Ocean. This is the most dynamically developing region in the world. It unites 40% of the world's population, 60% of world GDP, 50% of world trade. Growth rate is 6-7% per year. In the 90s Pacific ports accounted for more than 70% of global cargo turnover.

Factors that influenced the allocation of the Asia-Pacific region to a special zone of world development: the redivision of the world after World War II, the United States becomes the leader; Industrialization of East Asia: Japan's Economic Miracle; active development of the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand; the emergence of a leader in the region - Japan; changes in the system of world economic relations after World War 2, developing countries demanded equal rights in trade; in the 2nd half of the 20th century, the US share in world GDP decreased; reorientation of the United States from Europe to the Asia-Pacific countries in trade, Australia and New Zealand also reoriented to the Asia-Pacific region; liberalization of China's foreign economic relations. It was then that two new concepts appeared in relation to these states: the scientific one - “new industrial countries” (NIC) and the journalistic one - “Asian tigers”.

The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are divided into 4 blocks: 1) Countries of Northeast Asia (NEA): Russian Far East, North Korea (DPRK), South Korea (Republic of Korea), Japan, Mongolia, China (PRC); 2) Countries of Southeast Asia (SEA): Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Indochina countries (Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar (Burma)), Macau. Hong Kong, Taiwan (ROC); 3) Countries of Oceania: Australia, New. Zealand; 4) Countries of the American continent: USA, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Brazil, Argentina.

The economic development of the Asia-Pacific region in the 1990s was uneven. This has largely led to the fact that recently some doubts have arisen that the Asia-Pacific region will truly become the “locomotive” of world development in the 21st century.

The high growth rates of the developing economies of the Asia-Pacific region, primarily the countries of East Asia, have been ensured for a long period of time thanks to the expansion of exports and the scale of attracting foreign investment. This, in turn, became possible thanks to the implementation of effective economic policies aimed at maintaining high growth rates in the long term. perspective. Among other things, this policy included privatization and deregulation in the economic sphere, as well as the gradual liberalization of foreign trade and capital movements.

Japan maintains its position as the main exporter of capital in the region. Direct investment accounts for a significant portion of capital exports from Japan. Dynamic development of the US economy in the 90s. created a favorable climate for economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. At the same time, the slowdown in the growth rate of the American economy that has begun in recent years may indicate the beginning of a cyclical recession; in the near future, it can have a negative impact on the economic development of the Asia-Pacific countries, especially on exports, a significant share of which belongs to the products of the electronic and electrical industry ( Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia). The Chinese economy, despite a number of serious cyclical and structural problems, manages to maintain high rates of economic growth. Among the NIS, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, in general, managed to restore the trend towards relatively high rates of economic growth after the monetary and financial crisis of 1997-1998. At the turn of the century, both economies were able to gain significant benefits due to the global boom in the development of information technology (increasing demand for relevant goods, primarily in the American market), as well as the post-crisis recovery of the markets of East Asia.

At the turn of the 90s - 2000s. There was an improvement in macroeconomic indicators for the countries of Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand). However, growth in this region has been more moderate than in the North-East Asia subregion.

Integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region are developing, but according to a slightly different model compared to Europe and North America. Asian states are currently interacting at the levels of subregional integration groupings: APEC, NAFTA, ASEAN, ANZSERT, etc.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum is currently the most influential economic organization in the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, APEC unites 21 Asia-Pacific economies. The APEC region is home to enormous natural, human and investment resources. Since its creation in 1989, APEC sessions have adopted more than a dozen programs: on developing comparable data on trade and investment, on expanding investment and technology transfer, on training scientific personnel, on regional cooperation in the field of energy, protection of marine resources, development of fisheries , tourism, telecommunications.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been successfully operating for more than 40 years (since 1967). The direct constituent states were Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. Brunei (January 7, 1984), Vietnam (July 28, 1995), Laos and Myanmar (July 23, 1997), Cambodia (April 30, 1999) joined later. At the moment, Papua New Guinea has observer status. In 2002, East Timor applied for observer status. Initially, the goals of creating this organization were to promote the social and economic development of the member countries of the association, cooperation in industry and agriculture, and conduct research work. The success of mutual cooperation within this grouping is associated with the recent rapid economic growth in these countries. ASEAN's declared goal is to create a single market by 2020, thereby ensuring free trade and capital circulation in the region. At a meeting of economic ministers in August 2006, ASEAN Secretary-General OngKengYong said that the formation of the Asian Economic Union should be completed by 2015. Although the ASEAN countries have a local free trade agreement (AFTA), at the moment it is not enough for wider integration, since many processes in the region are overly politicized and complicated by various kinds of contradictions between states.

One can also highlight a subregional grouping such as ANZSERTA (1983), the Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area, which was created by signing the Australia-New Zealand Agreement on Deepening Economic Relations.

On December 17, 1992, the United States, Canada and Mexico signed an agreement establishing the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA), which entered into force on January 1, 1994. The key elements of the agreement were: the elimination of customs duties in mutual trade, the easing of the regime for US-Canadian investments in Mexico, the liberalization of conditions for the activities of US and Canadian banks in the Mexican market. The bloc's territory is a vast space with a population of 400 million people and powerful economic potential. It accounts for 20% of the total world trade volume.

Integration processes within the region and the influence of global globalization trends have led to the development and implementation of new options for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. These are, first of all, the so-called “small forms” of cooperation on a bilateral and trilateral basis. Another example of the desire for such cooperation is that since 1990, Malaysia has initiated the creation of the East Asian Economic Group (EAEG), a kind of trade coalition without the participation of the United States, in which the supporting structure would be Japan's trade and economic ties with regional states. China, Japan and South Korea have already created a tripartite analytical group designed to provide their governments with agreed recommendations on how to coordinate economic and financial policies, as well as develop trade and investment cooperation between them. In all three states, issues such as the creation of a single energy ring in the region and transport corridors to Europe, in particular through Russia, are being studied at the academic and business level. In January 2002, an economic cooperation agreement was signed between Japan and Singapore, which in turn included a free trade agreement, which practically abolished trade duties between the two countries. Duties were maintained only on some agricultural products. Duties on goods exported from Japan to Singapore have also been eliminated.

The distinctive features of Asia-Pacific integration can be listed in five points. First, the integration process involves countries with significantly different levels of economic development, different cultures and socio-political systems. Unlike other world centers of Europe and America, Asia has never been socioculturally united; a common Asian sociocultural space has never existed either. It represented and represents a complex interweaving of various basic world values ​​and religious traditions - Buddhism, Islam, Hinduism, Confucianism, Shintoism, Christianity.

Secondly, two great civilizations existed in Asia since ancient times - China and India. Their influence left an imprint not only on all aspects of life of the peoples of the Pacific region, but also on most countries of the world. The India of tomorrow is the world's service factory. Of all Asian economies, it is the most deeply integrated into the geocultural Western space, primarily linguistic. The China of today and tomorrow is the world's industrial factory. This specialization does not require systemic geocultural and geopolitical transformations - the English language and democracy are not considered as new basic values.

Thirdly, since the mid-twentieth century, Japan has been claiming the role of the dominant culture, and therefore the central system-forming element of the Asia-Pacific region. However, most developing countries in this region continue to regard Japan's integration efforts as a variant of transnational expansionist policy.

Fourthly, in contrast to the European and American regions, the basis of whose economic life is individual freedom and private property. The Pacific geospace is based on diversity and the dominance of the interests of the state and clan over the interests of the individual. In most countries of the Asia-Pacific region, a special model of socialization has developed, in which a person is perceived as an element (cog) of an administrative (clan) unit.

Fifthly, along with systemic contradictions, the problem of socio-economic differences along the line “rich North” - “poor South” is quite acute. The gap in economic income per capita between developed and developing Asia-Pacific countries is 100 times.

Integration processes develop from the bottom up: from private cooperation to interstate cooperation.

Over the past one and a half to two decades, the Asia-Pacific region has attracted much attention as an area of ​​the most dynamic economic growth. Outpacing other regions of the world in growth rates, including in technologically advanced industries, along with the rapid strengthening of the international competitiveness of a significant number of countries, the Asia-Pacific region gives reason to consider the role of international integration processes in it, contributing to the economic development of the countries of the region, the growth of consumption and production.

The share of the Asia-Pacific region in the total global gross national product increased from 4% in 1950 to 25% in 1995, and according to forecasts, by 2025 this figure may reach 40-50%. Economic growth rates in the leading countries of the region exceed similar rates in the United States and Europe. Thus, over the past 30 years, the GDP of Malaysia has increased 6 times, South Korea - 13, Taiwan - 25, Japan - 4.2, China - 9.5 times. According to existing data, by 2000 the Asia-Pacific region had become the main center of global economic power, surpassing North American and European ones.

It is no coincidence that today the attention of the whole world is focused on this region. In 1978, the volume of US trade with the Asia-Pacific countries exceeded the volume of trade with Europe, and at the beginning of the 21st century it was already twice the level of American trade with Europe.

The economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region today can be assessed as stable. The regional economy has recovered after well-known downturns. In most countries, GDP growth rates have increased significantly. The predictability of financial markets, the level of savings and investment activity have increased. The qualifications of human resources are being improved. The volume of foreign trade has increased, primarily due to the production of high-quality export products. Intraregional trade and economic ties are intensifying.

In the process of forming a new world center of political, economic and military activity here, we usually note increased integration and, at the same time, competition for the redistribution of spheres of influence between the United States, China and Japan. The factors destabilizing the situation in the Asia-Pacific region are the Taiwanese and Korean problems, as well as the problem of providing energy and resources to the rapidly developing region.

The economic recovery in the developing APEC countries in the late 90s, after the monetary and financial crisis, largely depended on the growth of foreign trade, and this, in turn, was determined by the recovery in the economies of developed countries, primarily the United States. Thus, states and territories with a significant share of electronic products and other information sector goods in their exports, such as Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, find themselves in a more difficult situation. At the same time, China, despite the negative trends in export development, was able to maintain high growth rates due to the growth of domestic demand in the economy.

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Especially for the Perspectives portal

Petr Yakovlev

Yakovlev Petr Pavlovich – head of the Center for Iberian Studies at the Institute of Latin America (ILA) RAS, professor at the Russian Economic University named after G.V. Plekhanov, Doctor of Economics.

The development of the world economy and trade increasingly depends on the state of affairs in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic changes on a planetary scale have been taking place in recent years. Major changes await this region of the world due to the coming to power of the Donald Trump administration in the United States, whose policies are significantly transforming Washington’s foreign economic policy.

The process of globalization, which for decades determined the main vector of development of the world economy and trade, began to stall. For the first time, signs of inhibition made themselves felt during the crisis of 2008 - 2009, when dozens of states resorted to protectionist measures to protect their producers from external competition. The practice of protectionism came into conflict with the policy of multilateral liberalization of trade relations, pursued since the mid-20th century.

The fact that further liberalization of international trade (primarily in the interests of the main players of the global economy - transnational corporations) has stalled was perceived in Washington as a failure of the policy of “global multilateralism”. The United States decided to make “regional multilateralism” an alternative to it - the formation of integration associations capable of practically implementing liberal norms and rules of cross-border trade in individual regions. In this way, it was planned to give additional impetus to the fading globalization, to give life to the “new globalism”.

During the presidency of Barack Obama, the focus of US foreign economic policy was the formation of a new generation of trade and economic mega-blocks in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. In the first case, we were talking about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the states of the European Union, in the second - about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with a group of countries in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). According to Washington, these giant associations were supposed to become a kind of “gravitational center” of the global economy and strengthen the position of American corporations in the system of future world economic relations. However, the arrival of the Donald Trump administration in the White House made significant adjustments to Washington’s international trade and economic policy. In particular, the US strategy in the Asia-Pacific space, which is key for the fate of the global economy, was marked by a sharp turn. It was in relation to the Asia-Pacific countries that D. Trump made the first radical decisions that have far-reaching consequences for the whole world.

Asia-Pacific countries in the global economy and trade

Global financial, economic and reproductive crisis of 2008 - 2009. gave additional dynamics to the economic processes developing in the Asia-Pacific economic space, accelerated its transformation into the largest center of the world economy and trade. This is not surprising, since this area of ​​the planet is adjacent to over 50 states and territories, including major economic powers: India, China, USA, Japan, Canada, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand etc. It is the Asia-Pacific region that confidently leads in terms of GDP growth and foreign trade turnover, is intensively increasing industrial production, demonstrating outstanding achievements in the effective commercial use of the results of scientific and technological progress, and is actively introducing innovations. The generally recognized economic successes of many Asia-Pacific countries are based on their competitive advantages, ensured by a high level of savings, relatively low (in most cases) labor costs, a course towards accelerated industrialization, and a clearly expressed export orientation of national economies.

According to the World Bank for 2015, among the 30 largest world economies (top 30) were 11 leading Asia-Pacific countries (APAC-11), which accounted for about 59% of world GDP (Table 1).

Table 1

Top 30 countries by GDP size in 2015 (current prices, billion dollars)

				Switzerland
	Japan			Saudi Arabia
	Germany			Argentina
	Great Britain
	India
	Brazil
	Canada			Thailand
	South Korea			Norway
	Australia
	Russia
			World GDP
	Mexico		GDP of top 30 countries
	Indonesia		Share of APR-11 in global GDP
	Netherlands		Share of Asia-Pacific-11 in GDP of the top 30

Source: (APAC countries are in italics).

Of course, the very different Asia-Pacific states have their leaders and outsiders. To a decisive extent, the Asia-Pacific region owes its geo-economic rise to China, which has become the second economy in the world and the world's largest exporter of goods, primarily industrial goods.

In 1980 - 2015, over three and a half decades, China's GDP in current prices grew from 191 billion to 11 trillion dollars (almost 58 times!), which is an unprecedented phenomenon in world economic history that changed the balance of forces in the world economic system. connections (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. China's GDP dynamics (billions of dollars)

Source:

But if in terms of GDP volume, calculated at the official exchange rate of national currencies, China is still inferior to the United States (although it is “treading on their heels”), then in terms of the size of commodity exports, the Celestial Empire has had no equal for a number of years and confidently ranks first in the global table of ranks, far ahead of all other exporting states, including the traditional “champions” of international trade: the USA, Germany and Japan. China's share in world merchandise exports increased from 1.2% in 1983 to 14% in 2015 (Fig. 2). There has never been such an export spurt.

Figure 2. China's share in world merchandise exports (%)

Source: .

As for other Asia-Pacific countries, they represent a significant diversity of national economic systems and natural resources. Including: high technologies of Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and the west coast of the USA, industrial hubs of Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia, energy raw materials of Russia, Canada and Indonesia, minerals of Australia, Peru, Chile and the Philippines, food of New Zealand, Colombia , Thailand, Ecuador and Central American countries, the inexhaustible human resources of India, etc. This kind of “unity in diversity” is a significant factor in further strengthening the competitive position of the Asia-Pacific region in the world economy and international trade.

In 2015, more than half of the list of top 30 leading exporting countries (ITC) was made up of Asia-Pacific countries (APR-16), and they accounted for over 60% of the total export volume of these countries and almost 51% of the global figure ( Table 2).

table 2

Top 30 exporting countries in 2015 (goods, billion dollars)

	China
				India
	Germany
	Japan			Thailand
	Netherlands			Saudi Arabia
	South Korea			Malaysia
	Hong Kong
				Brazil
	Great Britain			Australia
				Vietnam
	Canada			Czech Republic
	Mexico			Indonesia
	Singapore		World export
	Russia		Exports from top 30 countries
	Switzerland		Share of APR-16 in world exports
	Taiwan		Share of APR-16 in top 30 exports

Source: . (APAC countries are in italics).

Despite the impressive progress in economic development and increasing foreign trade turnover, the “blank slate phenomenon” remains an important geo-economic and geopolitical characteristic of this vast region. In other words, in the Asia-Pacific region (largely due to its gigantic scale), a network of sustainable strategic interests and strong mutual obligations of the leading world powers has not yet been created; there are no trade and economic associations of an integration type with the participation of, if not all, then at least , the main regional players. In fact, multilateral mechanisms of interaction are just being formed here, without which it is impossible to effectively use the entire total potential of the region. The experience of other regions of the world (primarily Europe) and life itself suggest that trade and economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region should be carried out along two tracks: international (bilateral contacts between countries) and supranational (multilateral), which plays a special role in the development and promotion of regional projects, development of unification processes.

The urgent need to create integration blocs has long been recognized by the political establishment and business communities of Asia-Pacific states. It cannot be said that nothing has been done in this direction to date. On the contrary, the countries of the Pacific Rim have made a considerable number of attempts at economic unification, the formation of integration groups and the creation of regional development banks. Here are the most famous of them:

APEC - Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (established in 1989 in Canberra, Australia, headquartered in Singapore, has 21 members);

ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations (established in 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, the secretariat is located in Jakarta, Indonesia, unites 10 member countries);

Pacific Alliance - formed in 2012 by four Latin American countries: Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile. There are 49 observer states;

ADB – Asian Development Bank (founded in 1966, headquartered in Manila, Philippines. Includes 48 regional and 19 non-regional members);

AIIB – Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (formed in 2014 in Beijing, where representatives of 21 countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding. Subsequently, the number of member states increased to 57, headquartered in Beijing).

However, the level of integration in the Asia-Pacific region is clearly insufficient. The task of forming mega-regional associations of a new generation (“in-depth type”) is urgent. The Obama administration set out to solve it, lobbying for the creation of the TPP because it considered the consolidation and expansion of its positions in the Pacific region vital for the trade, economic and strategic interests of the United States.

The importance of business ties with Asia-Pacific countries for the American business community is convincingly illustrated by data on Washington's trade with APEC members. In recent years, their share has accounted for 64–66% of the total trade turnover of the United States (Table 3). In other words, we are talking about a region where the colossal interests of American TNCs are concentrated.

Table 3

US trade with APEC members (goods, billion dollars)

Index
US trade turnover as a whole
Export in general
Import in general
Trade turnover with APEC
Export to APEC markets
Import from APEC countries
Trade balance with APEC
APEC share in US trade turnover (%)
APEC share in exports (%)
APEC share in imports (%)

Source:.

It was the Asia-Pacific region that Washington considered as the main geographic direction of trade and economic expansion. As the most effective strategy tool in this area of ​​the world, the Obama administration chose the formation of the TPP - an integration mega-bloc, the creation of which was proposed by New Zealand, Singapore and Chile back in 2003. After lengthy negotiations, 12 Asia-Pacific countries, led by the United States, but without the participation of China, managed to overcome countless differences and reach an agreement signed on February 4, 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand. The practical implementation of the agreement reached was supposed to open the way to the formation of a new type of interregional trade and economic association. The main feature of the TPP is the unprecedented expansion of business opportunities for transnational capital and the adoption of rules that protect the interests of TNCs in relations with sovereign states.

In trade with the vast majority of Asia-Pacific countries, the United States consistently experienced a significant deficit (in trade turnover with APEC in 2013 - 2016, it totaled over $2,382 billion). Trade with China was especially unfavorable for Washington: from 2010 to 2016. with a total trade turnover of $3,175 billion, the negative balance for the United States exceeded $2,390 billion, or more than 60% (Table 4). It was the colossal imbalance in US-China trade that served as one of the strongest arguments for D. Trump in advocating a policy of protectionism.

Table 4

US trade with China (goods, billion dollars)

Source: .

According to the current American president, the implementation of the TPP project could, on the one hand, lead to an accelerated growth in the export of industrial products of Asian and Latin American companies to the US market, and on the other, further stimulate American TNCs to export capital to those developing countries that provide foreign companies have the most favorable conditions for doing business (cheap raw materials, low labor costs, weak social protection of employees, flexible tax legislation, etc.). All this gave D. Trump a reason to categorically oppose the participation of the United States in the trans-Pacific partnership.

Results of the APEC summit in Lima

In the face of growing concern about the fate of the TPP, the regular XXIV APEC summit was held in the capital of Peru, Lima, in the second half of November 2016, which was attended by top officials of key states that are part of this largest interregional association: Australia, Canada, China, Mexico , USA, Russia, Japan, etc. The summit in Lima was held under the motto “Quality growth and development of human capital,” but in practice, the center of discussions were issues related to the crisis of the globalization process and the increasing instability of the existing system of world economic relations. Considerable attention was paid to finding new sources of economic growth, ensuring its inclusive nature, as well as the prospects for integration in the Asia-Pacific space.

The final declaration of the Lima Forum noted that the world economy is facing serious problems and challenges, and the situation in many countries is characterized by uneven economic growth, increasing social inequality, and environmental degradation. In this regard, it was concluded that globalization and the socio-economic processes associated with it are increasingly “called into question”, and “increasing uncertainty deprives confidence in the near future.” At the same time, the document warned against being carried away by criticizing globalization instead of correcting and improving it, and against total protectionism and economic isolationism.

In Lima, APEC participants agreed to maintain open national markets and “fight all forms of protectionism.” It was specifically emphasized that resorting to protectionist practices “weakens international trade” and “slows down progress in economic recovery.” Moreover, since the fate of the TPP in connection with the victory of Donald Trump was becoming unclear, the Lima Declaration included a clause on APEC members’ support for Beijing’s proposal to create a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or, as it appears in APEC documents, a Free Trade Area in the Asia-Pacific region (ZSTAT). Let us recall that the decision to begin work on the formation of the FTA was lobbied by the Chinese leadership at the XXII APEC summit in November 2014 in Beijing, where the development of a “road map” for a new regional integration association began.

Already at the very beginning, the FTA project was perceived in political and expert circles as a “Chinese response” to Washington’s plans to create the TPP. It is no coincidence that the US was not supposed to be included in the FTATA, and within the TPP there was no place for China (as well as for Russia). Beijing was closer to the formation of a FTA through the gradual expansion of the free trade zone that had already existed since 2010 between the PRC and the ASEAN countries.

Thus, in the mid-2010s, in the vast expanse of the Asia-Pacific region, competition arose between two geo-economic and geopolitical concepts for the further evolution of integration processes in this region of the world. The signing of the TPP agreement meant the transfer of the strategic initiative to the United States, but D. Trump’s victory mixed up all the cards and provided the Chinese leadership with the opportunity to push with renewed energy the idea of ​​​​expanding the ASEAN-PRC zone towards its transformation into a FTA. It is no coincidence that Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking in Lima, emphasized that in the face of the protectionist plans of the new owner of the White House, China will pursue a policy of greater trade and economic openness and “participate in globalization” even more actively.

According to international observers, the Chinese leader has become the main character at the APEC summit. On the sidelines and on the sidelines of the forum, politicians and experts widely discussed options for moving forward in the development of integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region without the participation of the United States. A number of state leaders officially confirmed their commitment to the principles of regional economic cooperation and demonstrated interest in expanding free trade zones and forming mega-blocks. “If the United States does not want to participate in the TPP, we will seek to sign an agreement without them, but with China and Russia,” said the host of the forum, President of Peru Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, without mincing words.

The problem of integration megablocks and new free trade zones is closely related to the task of creating a transparent system of international movement of goods and services based on the rules and regulations of the WTO and special multilateral agreements. Russia, together with China, is in favor of such a system, which was confirmed during the discussions in Lima. But Moscow and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are not yet ready for negotiations on participation in the future FTA. To do this, it is necessary to first solve a number of internal problems of the EAEU and give it greater international weight in order to more effectively defend its interests during the negotiation process.

The results of the APEC Lima summit recorded the beginning of a cooling in US international economic relations after D. Trump’s victory in the presidential election. Almost immediately after the inauguration, the new owner of the White House moved from words to deeds and withdrew the US signature on the TPP founding document.

China in the Year of the Fire Rooster

Washington’s withdrawal from the trans-Pacific mega-block project caused disappointment in most Asia-Pacific countries, which oppose the policy of protectionism and consider it necessary to achieve breakthrough agreements in the integration field and create a strong institutional framework for Asia-Pacific economic cooperation. In the new conditions, the prerequisites for significant geopolitical changes have emerged: China has a good chance of ousting the United States and taking the place of a leader in the Asia-Pacific region, and Russia has a chance to find its rightful place in future regional structures.

Of course, Washington (whoever the American president is) is not going to cede to Beijing without a fight its role as the locomotive of Asia-Pacific integration and, therefore, the main player in the global economy and world trade. But if previously the main tool in the US arsenal was playing ahead - the priority formation of interregional mega-blocks in the interests of American TNCs - now Washington’s strategic course in the bicontinental space of the Asia-Pacific region appears in a modified geopolitical form. The United States will not so much initiate the creation of new mega-blocks as slow down the development of integration processes, compress the zones of multilateral trade and financial cooperation in this area of ​​the world, build relations with partners on a bilateral basis, achieving the most favorable conditions for itself.

The spearhead of this course is directed against China. Repeatedly accusing Beijing of “currency manipulation” and other sins, D. Trump made it clear during the election campaign that with his international financial and economic policy he intends to create problems for the development of the Celestial Empire, limit its global foreign trade expansion and stop the skating rink of Chinese economic growth. In particular, Washington may continue its attack on the Chinese currency, the yuan, so that its weakening will prompt foreign investors to massively export capital from China. In fact, this is already happening. In August 2015, the People's Bank of China (the country's central bank) was forced to weaken the yuan against the dollar by 3%, which shocked global stock markets. In 2016, the yuan fell in price by another 7%. As a result, according to available estimates, in 2015 - 2016. About $1.6 trillion “fled” from China. The Chinese authorities tried to stop this process by tightening foreign exchange controls, but as facts showed, the more restrictions there were, the more actively investors sought to withdraw their assets. At the same time, there was a reduction in China's foreign exchange reserves (in November 2016 - by almost $70 billion), and Beijing's attempts to limit the outflow of capital aroused criticism from many Western companies that had problems transferring dividends from China to their head offices abroad. As the EU Chamber of Commerce in China noted, such restrictive actions of the Chinese authorities “create obstacles to business operations” [China's...].

Beijing’s response to the accusations from D. Trump did not take long to arrive and was quite predictable. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in mid-January 2017, Xi Jinping (he became the first top Chinese leader to attend this landmark annual event) not only confirmed the Chinese position voiced at the APEC summit in Lima, but also issued a warning about the possible devastating consequences policies of unleashing trade and currency wars. At the same time, the Chinese leader rejected D. Trump’s claims about “manipulation” of the yuan exchange rate. Xi Jinping's assessment of the globalization process and its effects has attracted increased interest in the world media. “Many of the problems facing the global economy are not caused by globalization,” the Chinese President emphasized and explained that the main reason for the crisis is the lack of adequate international financial and economic regulation, as well as the desire of banks and industrial companies to make profits “at any cost.” ".

At the end of January 2017, an article by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang appeared in the authoritative business magazine Bloomberg Businessweek, the leitmotif of which was that “economic globalization has made possible the creation and distribution of unprecedented wealth,” and existing problems can and must be solved joint efforts of all countries. “In a world full of uncertainties,” the prime minister emphasized, “China is a symbol of stability and growth through its constant commitment to reform, economic openness and free trade principles.” Thus, the idea of ​​a new international mission of the PRC - to become an “anchor of stabilization” of the global economy - was thrown into the world information space by Chinese leaders.

Washington’s break with the TPP project and Beijing’s firm position in favor of preserving the globalization process and continuing integration efforts in the Asia-Pacific region caused a flurry of comments around the world, the common denominator of which was the thesis that, due to the position of the White House in the trans-Pacific trade and economic space, drastic changes are inevitable transformation. It seems that in 2017 - the year of the Fire Rooster according to the eastern calendar - China made a bid for a leading role in a key region of the world.

TPP is dead, long live post-TPP!

The new geo-economic situation has forced the Asia-Pacific countries to pay close attention to China's leadership capabilities. In particular, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull admitted the possibility that China would take the US place in the TPP. On the other hand, the leadership of Japan (the country that was the first to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) believes that the withdrawal of the United States from the project “makes senseless” its implementation, and the invitation of the PRC to join the TPP is fraught with “strategic risks.”

For the government of Shinzo Abe, D. Trump's decision to withdraw from the TPP project, designed to become one of the pillars of the new liberal international economic order, was a particularly painful blow. The fact is that for industrial corporations in Japan it is the American market that is a priority due to its volume and significant surplus in commodity exchange. Suffice it to say that in 2010 - 2016. the total negative balance of the United States in trade with Japan exceeded $500 billion (Table 5). Relatively free access to the American market was the main prize that export-oriented Japanese companies hoped to receive after the TPP agreement came into force.

Table 5

US trade with Japan (goods, billion dollars)

Source: .

The US withdrawal from the TPP process most likely means that in the foreseeable future the Washington administration is not going to reconsider its negative position regarding multilateral efforts to coordinate national trade and investment regimes. In other words, the final closure of the trans-Pacific project will give rise to new negotiations, but on a bilateral basis. Under these conditions, the countries that signed the TPP agreement will have to make additional efforts to maintain the balance achieved in the multilateral format between the benefits received and forced concessions at the intercountry level. Apparently, Japan has already taken this path, as evidenced by S. Abe’s visit to Washington in the first half of February 2017. Following the results of the US-Japanese negotiations, it was emphasized that in the field of trade and economic relations, both countries will strive for “mutual benefit "(a common euphemism that hides the firm intention of the owner of the White House to achieve a more balanced exchange of goods with both the Land of the Rising Sun and other Asia-Pacific countries).

It seems clear that for a number of large industrialized Pacific countries interested in promoting their goods in the American market, the stakes in bilateral negotiations are extremely high and the difficulties are extremely great. There is no doubt that the United States will take a tough position, putting pressure on its partners and negotiating the most favorable terms for itself.

And one more circumstance of a strategic nature, in light of US efforts to contain China and reduce the potential for its geo-economic rise. The possible relative economic weakening of China (regardless of whether it occurs under the influence of the policies of the Trump administration or as a result of a critical accumulation of internal imbalances) will not mean a frontal retreat in the Asia-Pacific region. This region already has such significant potential for economic, demographic and civilizational development that it is capable of promoting new growth leaders. They could be India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Latin American members of the Pacific Alliance, and other countries with significant demographic, natural and industrial resources. States that have already achieved a high level of socio-economic and technical and technological development (Canada, Australia, South Korea, etc.) are not going to give up their positions either. If the United States wants to maintain its role as a leading global power, it will need an effective strategy for its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, which will inevitably exacerbate geoeconomic and geopolitical rivalry in the Asia-Pacific space.

In March 2017, the government of Chile, a country pursuing an open liberal trade and economic policy and consistently advocating for the creation of the largest possible free trade area in the Asia-Pacific region, came up with an important and timely diplomatic initiative. Chilean authorities invited the ministers of foreign affairs and trade of the signatories to the TPP agreement (excluding the United States), as well as China, South Korea and Colombia, which are currently expressing interest in participating in Pacific integration. Thus, on the ruins of the trans-Pacific partnership project, buried by the Trump administration, negotiations on the creation of a new mega-regional association - post-TPP - can be launched.

Two leaders face to face

On April 6 - 7, US President Donald Trump held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Mar-a-Lago private club in Florida. This summit was seen by many American and Chinese experts as a chance to establish personal contact between two world political heavyweights and reduce the risks of economic and geopolitical conflicts.

Behind the negotiations, along with strategic objectives, were the specific interests of Chinese and American enterprises. If Chinese entrepreneurs were primarily concerned about D. Trump’s announced intention to introduce prohibitive customs duties on goods from the PRC, the wishes of American businessmen were more varied. In particular, the US business community is not satisfied with the legal conditions for foreign companies’ access to the Chinese market (especially in the most promising industries), as well as the practice of “unfair” government support in China for national exporters who have “flooded the world market with subsidized products.” During consultations with presidential aides preparing a meeting with Xi Jinping, representatives of the US business community, on the one hand, demonstrated interest in participating in the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects in China, and on the other, cited various examples of imbalances in US-China relations. So, if in the United States imported Chinese cars are subject to a customs duty of 2.5%, then in China the same tax on American cars is 10 times higher - 25%. US high-tech companies have raised concerns that China's new cybersecurity law (passed on November 7, 2016 and set to take effect June 2017) could discriminate against US firms.

Giving a general assessment of the real trade and economic results of the first US-China summit, we can apply the formula “the first pancake is lumpy.” Many international media described the results of the meeting in Florida in a similar way, documenting the continuing “gap between the positions of the two world leaders.” D. Trump himself spoke in the same spirit, who before the gala dinner in honor of the Chinese guests remarked, as if jokingly: “We (with Xi Jinping. - P. I.) there was a long conversation, which still has not yielded any result, absolutely nothing.”

One way or another, the US abandonment of plans to create a Pacific integration mega-union will inevitably lead to increased US-Chinese rivalry and will have an impact on the future of the global economy.

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