The civil aircraft industry in Russia began to develop and bring losses. Global civil aviation market Dynamics of prices for passenger aircraft manufacturers in the world

The American concern Boeing has raised its forecast for the growth of the new passenger aircraft. On Thursday in London the company presented its annual market forecast civil aviation(Current Market Outlook), estimating the total cost of new aircraft required at $5.2 trillion. The concern predicts demand for 36,770 new aircraft over the next 20 years. The previous forecast was about 35 thousand aircraft worth $4.8 trillion.

“This is a strong and stable market,” said VP of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “With the introduction of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft, air travel growth is being driven by customers who want the ability to fly wherever they want, whenever they want.”

Demand indicators this year have increased due to the market narrow-body aircraft, which is forecast to become the fastest growing and dynamic segment due to the continued entry of low-cost airlines into the market. This segment will require 25,680 new aircraft at $2.56 trillion, representing 70% of projected demand.

“Given the staggering forecast for orders and deliveries, we see the single-aisle market as the backbone of aircraft with a passenger capacity of 160 people,” Tinseth said. “This market undoubtedly gravitates towards this dimension, which allows us to combine operational efficiency with the flexibility of the route network. The Next-Generation 737-800 and new 737 MAX 8 aircraft offer our customers the highest revenue potential in this category."

Boeing's main competitor, the European aircraft concern Airbus, is also betting on the narrow-body market. Sales of the flagship A321 model in the narrow-body aircraft segment increased by 20% and now account for about half of the total volume of narrow-body aircraft produced by the concern.

Demand for other types of aircraft will also increase. The forecast for sales in the regional airliner segment increased by 25%, to $100 billion, or 2,490 units. In 2013, the company forecast deliveries of regional jets at $80 billion, or 2,020 units.

Sales will also increase in the small wide-body and medium wide-body aircraft segments. At the same time, the number of orders in the segment of small wide-body aircraft, despite the growth in market volume, will decrease from 4,530 to 4,520 units.

Unlike the small and medium wide-body aircraft segment, the market for large wide-body aircraft with a passenger capacity of more than 400 seats will shrink, Boeing analysts predict. The concern expects a reduction in sales from $280 billion to $240 billion, and the total number of aircraft sold will be reduced from 760 to 620 units. According to Boeing estimates, the capacity of an average wide-body airliner for two aisles will increase by 20 seats in the next 20 years, and a narrow-body - by 10. Airplanes will become longer, aisles will become narrower, and the distances between seats will be reduced.

Over the next two decades, the market for new aircraft will gradually become more balanced with geographical point vision. At the same time, the main driver for market growth will be the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific market, including China, will lead in the total number of aircraft supplied to the region. According to Boeing analysts, in 2033 overall size The fleet of Asia-Pacific countries will grow from the current 5,470 to 15,220 aircraft. The CIS market will also grow significantly. Over the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operating in the CIS will increase from 1,180 to 1,820 units.

The American aviation concern's immediate plans include the presentation of a new generation of the medium wide-body Boeing 787-9, which is 7 m longer than the current top model Dreamliner 787-8 and can accommodate 40 more passengers. The aircraft should be presented to the general public for the first time early next week at the Farnborough Air Show. Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, will also present a new long-haul aircraft, the A350, with deliveries scheduled to begin at the end of 2014.

Aircraft manufacturing involves the design and creation of full-fledged aircraft and its components. The few and very expensive products are subsequently used for both civilian and military purposes.

There is no doubt that the most convenient means of transport for traveling is an airplane. About significance aircraft in matters of national defense there is no need to speak. All this makes the aircraft manufacturing industry a priority and places the world's largest aircraft manufacturing companies in a special category.

Aviation giants

The aircraft industry today uses almost all mechanical engineering products. In addition, all innovative scientific and technical processes are undoubtedly used in it. It is logical to assume that if a state is able to locate such a production complex on its territory, this means its financial solvency and the ability to show itself as a reliable business partner.

Direct rental of aircraft can become interesting idea for a startup. A striking example of such a business is described.

The constant development of the industry involves the use of super-new information technologies (we are talking not only about the manufacture of aircraft, but also the components for them). From the economic side, this is, of course, a definite and very serious financial investment. On the other hand, every state needs the aviation industry. This formulation of the question makes it necessary to provide assistance to such enterprises from the state.

Below is a list of the ten largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world. The basis Forbes rating was the market value of the enterprises, which “ranked” them in the top 10.

Table 1. Rating of the top 10 largest aircraft manufacturing companies

	Place in the general Forbes list	Name of company	Country of location	Market value for 2016, billion dollars
		Rolls-Royce Holdings	Great Britain
			Great Britain
		Northrop Grumman
		General Dynamics
			Netherlands
		The Boeing Company

10th place: we start with Rolls-Royce Holdings

A division of a well-known company specializes in the production of engines for civil aviation. The organization has been working in the aircraft sector since 1904. Over more than a century of history, the corporation has earned worldwide recognition and the desire of foreign customers to cooperate with it. In this regard, Russia is not lagging behind: it is Rolls-Royce that offers to supply its engines for the future Russian-Chinese long-haul airliner.

The company employs 54,100 people. Annual revenue last year was $20.18 billion.

9th place: French company Thales

The company's 20.6 billion capital value is deservedly due to the diligent work that dates back to 1918. Today the organization is busy producing information systems of aerospace importance. The company's products include components for military aviation, electronics for fighter aircraft.

The organization is named after Thales of Miletus, an ancient Greek philosopher. Offices are located in more than 50 countries around the world, and the total staff of all employees reaches 68,000 people. Sales revenue for 2016 was $16.5 billion.

8th place: British company BAE Systems plc

BAE Systems is essentially a British defense company promoting its products in the aerospace field. It works with foreign customers (mainly from the USA) through its subsidiary BAE Systems Inc. The British Aerospace (BAe) division works directly with the aerospace environment.

The organization actively lobbies its interests in the former Soviet republics. For example, since 2001 it has owned 49% of the national Kazakh carrier Air Astana.

According to the latest data, the organization employs 88,200 people worldwide. The headquarters itself is located in London. Now about the financial component: in 2016, the corporation’s revenue amounted to $24 billion.

7th place: French corporation Safran

Aerospace and aviation equipment are among several areas of this French industrial conglomerate. The company mainly specializes in commercial and military engines, as well as the restoration and repair of jet engine models. There is also a turbo direction - turboshaft engines for helicopters and turbines for rockets. In addition, other components for aircraft and engines are manufactured.

In total, the company employs 57,495 people. Revenue for 2016 was $18.23 billion.

6th place: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

This corporation was organized in 1994 and united Northrop Corporation and Grumman Corporation. Aviation and space are not the only areas of its activity. As equipment for this, the company produces military fighters and even airships (Airlander 10).

Northrop Grumman Corporation received revenue for 2016 equivalent to $24.51 billion. In total, this organization employs 67,000 people.

5th place: Raytheon

The top five starts with the American manufacturer, which receives more than 90% of its revenue from defense orders. The products are quite specific in nature - these are radio-controlled missiles and guidance systems, components of space systems, guidance technologies.

Raytheon's name is interestingly translated - "Divine Ray", which is associated with the initial production of ray tubes since 1922. Raytheon retrained itself as an aviation-related enterprise during World War II. The project was the development of protection against Japanese kamikaze attacks, which turned into large-scale production.

Today, Raytheon Corporation employs 63,000 people. Revenue for 2016 was $24.07 billion.

4th place: American General Dynamics

One of the giants in the production of military and aerospace technical arsenal is the fifth on the planet in concluding contracts related to the supply of aircraft for defense needs.

The organization is a supplier of powerful information systems, which include intercontinental missiles, satellite data processing systems and similar equipment. For a long time, General Dynamics collaborated with NASA.

In addition to aerospace products, the company is also involved in the production of naval and combat systems. The leading role here lies in the development of information technologies. In total, the organization employs 98,800 employees, who generated revenue of $31.35 billion for the past 2016.

3rd place: Bronze Dutch Airbus Group (formerly EADS)

The organization today is better known under the name Airbus Group. It is the largest aerospace corporation in Europe, with headquarters not only in the Dutch capital, but also in Paris and Ottobrunn.

The company is relatively young, formed by the merger of other large specialized organizations in 2000. EADS was renamed Airbus Group only in 2013. At the same time, management announced a restructuring, after which three divisions are expected: Airbus will engage in commercial aircraft manufacturing, Airbus Helicopters will specialize in the production of helicopters, and Airbus Defense & Space will become a platform for the production of military and space equipment.

The company's revenue for 2016 was $73.7 billion. The Airbus Group employs 133,000 people.

2nd place: silver medalist Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global company that specializes in the defense and space segment of the market. Prominent examples of production include fighter-bombers (5th generation F-35) and models of F-22 class fighters.

The company's main client is the native American government, which brings in approximately 82% of revenue. The rest is provided by international contracts (work under the arms sales program). The number of commercial orders is only 1% of revenue. The company's full profit for 2016 is $79.9 billion.

In total, this organization employs 97,000 people. The headquarters is located in the US state of Maryland, in the city of Bethesda.

1st place: undoubted leader Boeing

The headquarters of this largest global manufacturer is located in Chicago. Specialization - production of aviation, military and even space equipment. The military arsenal is handled by the Boeing Integrated Defense Systems division, and the civil direction is under the wing of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

In addition, one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world produces a wide range of military equipment (including helicopters) and participates in large-scale space programs (an example is the CST-100, spaceship).

The company's capitalization is $108.9 billion, and revenue for the past year is $94.6 billion. Today this structure employs 150,500 people. Factories operate in 67 countries, and goods are supplied to 145 countries. And that’s not all the numbers: the organization’s partners are more than 5,200 suppliers from 100 countries.

Features of the aircraft industry

Initially, the aircraft industry was formed as an industry of a military nature. They began to think about releasing civilian objects later. This made the aircraft manufacturing sector monetized and gave certain specific features:

1. The production of military products is determined by the military orders of one’s own state and the possibilities of world export supplies.
2. The production of civil aircraft depends entirely on the receipt of national and global orders. Naturally, these figures can fluctuate greatly depending on demand.

The production of airliners may well become a domestic import substitution program. Find out more detailed information you can in this article.

A separate issue concerns the cost of production itself. It may be surprising that back in the mid-90s it was valued at 4 times less than the automobile industry, i.e., only $250 billion. Everything is explained simply: airplanes cannot be called a mass product, they are piece production. The annual production of civil aviation objects hardly exceeds the volume of 1000 pieces; for the military structure, the figures may be even less, only 600 pieces per year.

The situation is somewhat saved by the established production of so-called light aircraft. The great demand for them is also due to affordable price- from 20 to 80 thousand dollars. Most often, such products are used for educational, sports or business purposes.

The high knowledge intensity of the entire process is also of great importance. Typically, the development of any aircraft (both military and civilian) can take from 5 to 10 years. High prices for the design and creation of aircraft objects are so large that few companies in the world can afford such activities:

Position on the Russian market

The leader of the domestic aircraft industry is the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC). It was created in 2006 and united all previously existing aircraft design organizations in the country.

The corporation's revenue is 295 billion rubles. During its operation, more than 200 aircraft were delivered. Special emphasis in last years goes to the development of the short-haul line Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100). In 2016 alone, 34 deliveries of this aircraft model took place. Today, more than 50 such machines are in operation, and 13 of them are used outside of Russia.

The aircraft industry in Russia can be considered as an object of venture business. Read more about this concept.

Another promising direction of UAC is the new generation of medium-haul airliners MC21, the first flight tests of which took place last year. There is a demand for them: immediately after the tests, 175 orders and applications for the production of such equipment were received. UAC plans to produce 72 such airliners per year.

The aviation industry as an industry was formed at the beginning of the twentieth century. By 1910-12, many countries had several enterprises engaged in the production of aircraft. Interest in the industry arose during the times of world wars, in particular the Second World War, when air supremacy became one of the determining factors in a particular battle. After 1945, the industry continued its rapid growth, during this period paying more attention to civil aviation. By the end of the 80s, the aviation industry approached the modern model and then practically did not change its appearance. Currently, several countries have emerged as leaders in the aviation industry and are maintaining their positions in this sector.

Modern leaders - what are their characteristics

Currently, world leadership in the aviation industry belongs to several countries, including the USA, Russia, the EU and Brazil. These countries have greatest number factories and plants operating in this industry. Some companies within the state can afford to produce single parts, but all of them ultimately go to larger enterprises that form the basis of the national aircraft industry.

The peculiarity of leading companies in countries that are leaders in the aviation industry is the fact that they all cooperate with the state. If we are talking about civil aviation, then this is servicing large carriers and national flights; if we are talking about military aviation, it is meeting the needs of the armed forces.

Leading companies in the civil aviation industry

The civil aircraft industry is the most expensive group, which includes only large enterprises with a narrow specialization at the national or international level.

In the civil aircraft industry today there are two large corporations leading:

• Boeing (American company);
• Airbus (EU united corporation);
• United Aviation Corporation of Russia.

There are no enterprises of similar scale in other countries. A key feature of these companies is the dispersal of production throughout the country or several countries (EU). This approach makes it possible to focus production at one plant for the production of one part, to bring factories closer to resources and, therefore, to minimize production costs. In addition, these companies were able to appear only thanks to the merger of giants. So, for example, the UAC includes several large enterprises “Su”, “Mig”, “Il”, “Tu”, “Yak”, focused on general production.

Others large companies, producing aviation in the world are: Lockheed-Martin, Northrop-Grumman, United Technologies, Textron (USA).

China will most likely be among the leading aircraft manufacturers in the near future, but today its production cannot yet compete with the world giants.

Military aviation

In the military sector, aviation industry leaders look different. The following brands fall into this category:

• Su (made in Russia);
• Mig (Russia);
• Panavia Tornado (Germany);
• Eurofighter Typhoon (produced by the European Union);
• Boeing (United States Production).

In this sector, it is quite difficult to determine leadership between brands, since companies producing such equipment are reluctant to advertise their own sales. However, we can say with confidence that in this sector the top three remain unchanged: the USA, the European Union and Russia. Interesting developments in this industry also belong to Israel, Canada, China and some other countries, but they are produced in a much more modest volume.

00:21 — REGNUM Revival of the military aviation industry

2014 was a record year for the Russian Air Force - pilots received 108 different aircraft at their disposal. In 2015, the pace of deliveries should remain at approximately the same level or increase slightly. In total, taking into account exports, at least 124 military aircraft were built. The number of helicopters produced is growing more slowly; in 2013 and 2014, approximately 300 helicopters were produced. As for civil aircraft production, the results here are noticeably more modest - 43 aircraft were produced, of which 38 aircraft were delivered to customers, and the rest will be delivered in 2015.

Is it a lot or a little? To do this, we need to dwell in more detail on each category of aviation products.

Military aircraft manufacturing

In 2014, the Russian Air Force received 24 Su-35S multirole fighters, 21 Su-30SM multirole fighters, 8 Su-30M2 fighters, 18 Su-34 front-line bombers, 10 Mig-29K/KUB carrier-based fighters, 20 Yak-130 combat trainers , surveillance aircraft Tu-214ON, four passenger aircraft An-148-100E, two cargo-passenger aircraft An-140-100. All of the listed aircraft meet modern requirements, many of them (especially the Su-30) have had enormous success abroad. As already mentioned, the total number of military aircraft produced was at least 124 (the number of aircraft delivered abroad could not be accurately determined, so the number could be more - up to 150). Let's compare this figure with the number of combat aircraft produced in the 80s of the USSR, when the aviation industry was really strong. From 1983 to 1990, an average of 175 aircraft were produced each year, of which 110 were military. That is, the result achieved in 2014 fully corresponds to Soviet production rates, and this despite the fact that each new aircraft model (especially military) costs noticeably more than the previous one and requires more time to build.

And one more interesting point - today the Russian Federation has begun to take first place in the world in the production of combat aircraft, overtaking both China (which uses Russian engines on its aircraft) and the United States (no more than 100 aircraft in 2014). The United States is being let down by the development of the 5th generation fighter F-35, which is not going as smoothly as we would like. According to preliminary information, over the next 5 years the United States will produce 569 aircraft - 113 per year, along with export aircraft.

As for the prospects of the Russian Federation, within two years the 5th generation PAK FA fighters will go into mass production. Within State program weapons for 2011-2020, the rate of aircraft production should remain approximately at the same level as in 2014. Work has begun on the creation of a promising strategic bomber PAK DA and a military transport aircraft PAK TA.

Another important area of ​​development of the Air Force is the modernization of the existing aircraft fleet. Already in 2015, 5 modernized Tu-160 and 9 Tu-22M3M strategic bombers will be received. These aircraft can now carry high-precision non-nuclear cruise and anti-ship missiles. By 2020, the Russian Air Force should have at least 700 modernized aircraft (while maintaining the current pace).

Civil aircraft industry

Here things are not so rosy. The main domestically produced passenger aircraft is the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100. It was produced in the amount of 34 units. With a stretch, civil aviation can also be classified as transport aircraft purchased by law enforcement agencies - 9 more An-148, An-140, Il-76 and Tu-214. Total 43 cars. In the 80s in the USSR, 60-70 were produced every year civil aircraft. But then there was the production of wide-body aircraft, the same Il-86/96. Now the model range is limited to only one single SSJ-100, the prospects of which on the market are not yet entirely clear. The MS-21, a medium-range aircraft from the UAC, is in development. There was information about the possible development of a wide-body aircraft project jointly with China. In any case, we are still very far from Europeans and Americans - the world market is still almost completely divided between two giants - Airbus and Boeing. In 2013, the first delivered 626 aircraft, and the second 648. The annual production of our UAC aircraft is only 6.8% of Airbus's production.

Helicopters

Let's get back to the positive again. In 2014, the Russian Helicopters holding company produced just over 300 aircraft, of which more than 100 were produced as part of the State Defense Order. In the USSR in the 80s, helicopter production was approximately 380 units per year - the figure is higher, but not dramatically, especially considering the shrinkage of the country itself and the production of more expensive and modern machines. In addition, there is a production of a certain number of rotorcraft outside of Russian Helicopters - up to 50 more helicopters per year. Russian Helicopters accounts for 14% of global sales. The line of the legendary Mi-8/17 is especially popular, which is still purchased even by the Pentagon for the Afghan army. The production of Ka-52, Mi-28 and Mi-35 attack helicopters is more than 70 units per year - first place in the world.

conclusions

1. We are witnessing a revival of the military aviation industry of the Russian Federation. Not only have Soviet production rates been achieved, but even the United States has been left behind.

2. Although the civil aircraft industry has begun to revive (a few years ago there were not even 20 aircraft produced per year), it is still insignificant on a global scale. The model range is extremely scarce and does not meet the needs of the Russian Federation. The main development prospect is cooperation with China, which will allow us to gain a huge Asian market.

3. Progress in helicopter manufacturing is very good. It is worth noting that even in the worst years, helicopter production rarely fell below 100 units per year. The Mi-8/17 line has always been popular abroad.

had a beneficial effect on her aviation market . The demand for new aircraft has noticeably revived, since one of the main problems of airlines continues to be an outdated fleet of equipment. It is expected that in the coming years more than 1,000 aircraft of European and domestic production (including those produced in the CIS countries) will be purchased.

The leaders of world aircraft production (Airbus and Boeing) predict two types of development of air passenger transportation. According to the vision of Airbus specialists, a hub-and-spoke model (hubs and spokes) will be implemented, which essentially means the following. From regional airports, medium and small planes take passengers to a large hub, from where long-distance flights are carried out to similar centers around the world.

Boeing analysts see a different path of development, proposing a point-to-point model, that is, the passenger gets to their destination with minimal transfers. Both companies presented long-haul aircraft designs to the market that would enable the implementation of the proposed models for the development of air travel.

The Russian aviation market implements both models. The number of point-to-point flights within the country will inevitably increase, and hub-and-spoke flights will be carried out international flights. Already, the demand for wide-body aircraft is increasing, and the demand for long-distance international flights, according to experts, will grow over the next 15-18 years to 5% annually. Growing incomes of citizens, liberalization of transport laws and cheaper services will affect the domestic aviation market, which will also grow.

The situation now and the near future

As of today, there are about two hundred airlines operating in Russia. However, by 2025, a maximum of a couple of dozen of them will remain successful. Small regional companies continue to go bankrupt, since the majority of them consist of obsolete (still Soviet) aircraft received from them, which have practically exhausted their flight life. But such companies cannot afford to purchase new equipment, and will be forced to leave the aviation market.

Only large network airlines can count on success in the future. They still operate successfully today, have an established network of routes that are profitable and familiar to passengers, and have fleet renewal programs. Among the successful airlines that represent the country's aviation market are Aeroflot, S7, UTair, AiRUnion, Transaero and some others. The share of passenger traffic of each by 2020 will be at least 10 million people annually. It is possible that closely related companies may consolidate in the future, which will allow them to gain considerable advantages and profitably purchase new aircraft.

Already, the most successful airlines in Russia are abandoning the secondary aircraft market, along with the world's leading airlines, purchasing the latest developments from aircraft manufacturers. The only drawback for the aviation market and the domestic economy as a whole is that the Russian aviation industry will not be able to present a decent competitive aircraft for medium-haul flights in 10-12 years (with the possible exception of the Sukhoi SuperJet).

How the regional air transportation market will change

It is in the domestic aviation market for regional transportation that many experts see the future of aviation. Here the main competitor continues to be the railway: cheaper, simpler, no passport or face control required, no need for advance registration. However, it is expected that over time the price of air tickets will become closer to railway tickets and more affordable, and security measures will be tightened at train stations. Of course, even the rise in price train tickets will leave their positions 20-30% more profitable, but an absolute advantage railway will leave.

If taking the train is only slightly more convenient than going through security on a plane, and the ticket prices are comparable, then many passengers will ultimately prefer planes. Their undeniable advantage in the speed of travel to the desired location is undeniable. It is from this moment that air transportation by small aircraft over short distances will boost the Russian aviation market, when half-forgotten flights between neighboring cities and regions will return.

There is hope that the expected gigantic potential of the domestic air transportation market will prevent the authorities from handing it over to foreign carriers. Today they do not have access to the domestic Russian aviation market; there is an agreement at the intergovernmental level regulating air transportation between Russia and other countries. The number of flights is clearly recorded and even a specific carrier from the country is determined. The leading position is occupied by Aeroflot, which is assigned carrier powers on most foreign routes. However, after joining the WTO it will not be easy for him to maintain his position.